China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
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Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#2Here is a scary detail, Japan's stock market capitalization over the last twenty five years. Look how it keeps cycling around $4 Trillion.
Year Value
1988 $3,910,000,000,000
1989 $4,390,000,000,000
1990 $2,920,000,000,000
1991 $3,130,000,000,000
1992 $2,400,000,000,000
1993 $2,999,760,000,000
1994 $3,719,910,000,000
1995 $3,667,290,000,000
1996 $3,088,850,000,000
1997 $2,216,700,000,000
1998 $2,495,760,000,000
1999 $4,546,940,000,000
2000 $3,157,220,000,000
2001 $2,251,810,000,000
2002 $2,126,080,000,000
2003 $3,040,660,000,000
2004 $3,678,260,000,000
2005 $4,736,510,000,000
2006 $4,726,270,000,000
2007 $4,453,470,000,000
2008 $3,220,490,000,000
2009 $3,377,890,000,000
2010 $4,099,590,000,000
2011 $3,540,680,000,000
2012 $3,680,980,000,000Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#3I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#4Given that China's population is 10.8x Japan's, this seems inevitable. Is there more to this that make it notable that I'm missing?
Source: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=china+population+%2F+j...
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#5I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.
Counter to most western thought, you can in fact have heavy social control but small-government in terms of economics ala Singapore and have a country make rapid economic process.
China's CRC can loosen their grip on business, or selectively ignore it often enough, while still maintaining heavy control of culture and social issues, while still maintaining high growth rates. As we've seen in the last few decades.
It didn't seem to stop them previously, why would they try now? Other than civilian revolt which is non-existent in China.
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#6Here is a scary detail, Japan's stock market capitalization over the last twenty five years. Look how it keeps cycling around $4 Trillion. Year Value 1988 $3,910,000,000,000 1989 $4,390,000,000,000 1990 $2,920,000,000,000 1991 $3,130,000,000,000 1992 $2,400,000,000,000 1993 $2,999,760,000,000 1994 $3,719,910,000,000 1995 $3,667,290,000,000 1996 $3,088,850,000,000 1997 $2,216,700,000,000 1998 $2,495,760,000,000 1999 $…
Are these current $?
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#7Given that China's population is 10.8x Japan's, this seems inevitable. Is there more to this that make it notable that I'm missing? Source: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=china+population+%2F+j...
I don't think a country's size correlates to its stock market size.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats8.htm
So, I don't see why you would think that's inevitable.
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#8I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.
Counter to most western thought, you can in fact have heavy social control but small-government in terms of economics ala Singapore and have a country make rapid economic process. China's CRC can loosen their grip on business, or selectively ignore it often enough, while still maintaining heavy control of culture and social issues, while still maintaining high growth rates. As we've seen in the last few decades. It d…
> you can in fact have heavy social control but small-government in terms of economics ala Singapore and have a country make rapid economic process.
Singapore's rapid economic progress is due to anything but small government. If you read Lee Kuan-yew's memoirs, you'll see the lengths to which the Singaporean government went to kowtow to Western (and later, Japanese) multinationals. They rolled out the red carpet over and over, for years, before any of those companies made significant investments in Singapore.
Also, there are several reasons why generalizing the Singaporean experience to Sinosphere countries doesn't work:
1. Although Singapore has a lot of ethnic Chinese, the country is inherently multicultural and has adopted many British cultural traditions and practices.
2. The country is very small, making social control much easier than in a country the size of China.
3. Lee Kuan-yew himself has said that the Chinese government won't be able to maintain social control as the Chinese population migrates to the cities[0]. The system will have to change, and that will be very difficult.
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#9Here is a scary detail, Japan's stock market capitalization over the last twenty five years. Look how it keeps cycling around $4 Trillion. Year Value 1988 $3,910,000,000,000 1989 $4,390,000,000,000 1990 $2,920,000,000,000 1991 $3,130,000,000,000 1992 $2,400,000,000,000 1993 $2,999,760,000,000 1994 $3,719,910,000,000 1995 $3,667,290,000,000 1996 $3,088,850,000,000 1997 $2,216,700,000,000 1998 $2,495,760,000,000 1999 $…
A couple things to note on this:
1) Market cap changes of the stock market doesn't tell much. If a company changes it's capital structure (more or less debt relative to stock, or Private Buyouts) the market cap changes.
2) A better metric would be "Total value of the equity and debt of all the companies" with an equity and debt breakout.
3) Even still, this would miss privately held companies. It also would just measure the asset values, and not ownership.
Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market
#10Here is a scary detail, Japan's stock market capitalization over the last twenty five years. Look how it keeps cycling around $4 Trillion. Year Value 1988 $3,910,000,000,000 1989 $4,390,000,000,000 1990 $2,920,000,000,000 1991 $3,130,000,000,000 1992 $2,400,000,000,000 1993 $2,999,760,000,000 1994 $3,719,910,000,000 1995 $3,667,290,000,000 1996 $3,088,850,000,000 1997 $2,216,700,000,000 1998 $2,495,760,000,000 1999 $…
Are these current $?
All in current USD (2012).