Ask HN: Should I accept an at will job offer with a pay increase

Where do you work now that you're not at-will? In the US, the vast majority of software/tech jobs are at-will; the exceptions are unionized shops (not common in tech) and people who have personal contracts (also not common except for senior executives). So presumably you're not in the USA?

Here's the questions I think you should ask yourself:

1. How likely am I to lose the new job? Is the employer stable (both financially and also in the sense of making rational decisions)? And related: how much more stable is your current job, really?

2. If I were to lose the new job, how hard will it be to find another one, and how similar/appealing will the new job be? If you're in a hot market and getting constant recruiter outreach, or if your current company would be happy to have you come back, then risk is low.

In addition, of course, you should balance the full package of alternatives; not just salary, but also career direction, personal growth, happiness, etc.

Are you sure you're not currently on an "at-will" employment. I'm not sure about other places but pretty sure California is an "at-will" employment state.

To a first approximation, the whole US is at-will. The exceptions to at-will are expensive to litigate and have very uncertain outcomes. The "just-cause" standard that is basically the worst-case for an employer basically amounts to "there must be some valid reason to terminate the employee"; it would come in to play if you, say, fired someone for distracting you by being too attractive (actually happened!), but not if you thought you were getting poor bang-for-the-buck from a developer.

I'm not a lawyer, &c &c, but it's probably smart to deal with all employer/employee relationships where you don't have a contract addressing the issue as if it was at-will.