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The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

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Re: The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

#5
Interesting analysis. If the Iron Dome is mere security theater then it makes it makes sense that the IDF won't simply sit back and let Hamas fire away until they run out of rockets. Enough property damage may make Israelis' behind the Iron Dome realize that it's only the shelters that offer real safety.

I'm curious about Hamas' choice in rockets though. Would larger rockets present as easier targets for the Iron Dome? If so, then the Iron Dome does indeed serve an important purpose by limiting Hamas to rockets small enough to be harmless to shelters. If not, then why would Hamas not use rockets large enough to penetrate a shelter?

Finally, let's assume the ineffectiveness of the Iron Dome was commonly known. Given the sharp increase in IDF casualties after the ground invasion started, would it still have made sense to invade if there was no fear that Israelis might lose confidence in the Iron Dome?

Re: The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

#6

There's no evidence to speak of in the article--just calculations speculating that the success rate should be low. At best, it calls for Israel to produce evidence that the system is indeed working.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-21/israels-iron...

Re: The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

#7
post #2

I've seen quotes that suggest the missiles cost between 20 and 100,000 dollars. How is it suitanable to continue using the Iron Dome at such a high cost?

In the USA, a human life is typically valued (for risk analysis etc) at $5M or so.

Break even happens if a single missile would prevent a death 2% of the time. That excludes the psychological costs, property damage, and other possible negative results.

Re: The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

#8
post #5

Interesting analysis. If the Iron Dome is mere security theater then it makes it makes sense that the IDF won't simply sit back and let Hamas fire away until they run out of rockets. Enough property damage may make Israelis' behind the Iron Dome realize that it's only the shelters that offer real safety. I'm curious about Hamas' choice in rockets though. Would larger rockets present as easier targets for the Iron Dom…

It is important to consider that Hamas doesn't have much "choice" in their missiles. They just use whatever they can get their hands on.

Re: The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

#9
post #2

I've seen quotes that suggest the missiles cost between 20 and 100,000 dollars. How is it suitanable to continue using the Iron Dome at such a high cost?

Probably in much the same way that the US spends $6e11 on the military every year. Sustainability has different meanings in different contexts.
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