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Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

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Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#2
1. "iTunes is also the preferred tool for listening to pirated music, which generates nothing for artists."

Spotify has paid out $1B in 9 years. iTunes is paying out over $1B PER QUARTER. [1]

2. Spotify also has an ARPU cap ($120/yr) - Not only do none of their competitors have this, but it is likely others will find ways to increase APRU (better video CPMs or iTunes exclusives are just a few options). This will likely make Spotify a less appealing distribution option going forward.

3. It seems implausible Spotify is the cause for reduced piracy - YouTube has 10x the content, $0 cost, no need to download an application or creating an account and has 50x the user base.

[1] - Don't worry, I'm not including app sales in this figure.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#3
post #2

1. "iTunes is also the preferred tool for listening to pirated music, which generates nothing for artists." Spotify has paid out $1B in 9 years. iTunes is paying out over $1B PER QUARTER. [1] 2. Spotify also has an ARPU cap ($120/yr) - Not only do none of their competitors have this, but it is likely others will find ways to increase APRU (better video CPMs or iTunes exclusives are just a few options). This will like…

Beyonce's latest release on iTunes sold over 1 million copies in less than a week at a very premium $15.99 a pop [1]. And there's no need to pirate it, as videos of her best songs are already heading to VEVO/YouTube now [2]. It's a win-win, and Spotify's not a huge part of that story.

[1] http://www.cnbc.com/id/101283857

[2] http://www.vevo.com/watch/beyonce/drunk-in-love-explicit/USS...

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#4
>We're set to soon see growth of physical sales eclipse the contraction of physical sales completely. Which means the graph, if expanded a bit, might look like this: It goes up a little bit!

I don't understand. To me, the change in physical sales appears to be asymptotically approaching 0. Why assume it suddenly goes positive and then use that guess to make Spotify look deceptive?

>Spotify is playing a little fast and loose here, though. A Spotify Premium user isn't the average music fan. Only 25% of Spotify's active user base pays for the Premium service. .. A fairer comparison might have been the average U.S. citizen against the average Spotify user, since both include people not really paying for music.

No, they're not. They're comparing paying Spotify customers to US paying listeners. If you think comparing nonpaying to nonpaying is reasonable, paying to paying should be reasonable too.

>In a year, Spotify makes about $14.67 per advertising-supported user [2], but those folks if considered just typical Americans would spend $25 on average [3]. That's just over $10 per year lost for each cannibalized person.

Why assume those people aren't buying music also?

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#5
post #2

1. "iTunes is also the preferred tool for listening to pirated music, which generates nothing for artists." Spotify has paid out $1B in 9 years. iTunes is paying out over $1B PER QUARTER. [1] 2. Spotify also has an ARPU cap ($120/yr) - Not only do none of their competitors have this, but it is likely others will find ways to increase APRU (better video CPMs or iTunes exclusives are just a few options). This will like…

iTunes has a much larger userbase, though. Spotify actually generated half a billion last year alone.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#6
post #4

>We're set to soon see growth of physical sales eclipse the contraction of physical sales completely. Which means the graph, if expanded a bit, might look like this: It goes up a little bit! I don't understand. To me, the change in physical sales appears to be asymptotically approaching 0. Why assume it suddenly goes positive and then use that guess to make Spotify look deceptive? >Spotify is playing a little fast an…

The projection graph does assume flat physical sales. But it's a stacked chart.

Paying to paying is not completely unreasonable, but imagine an airline using the average fares of its Airline Club members (who are often flying first class) vs the fares of average Americans. It's easy to inflate the number when the group of people you're talking about are rich and predisposed to being more engaged.

edit to your edit: It's not clear to me why you would be willing to listen to Spotify for free, but then buy music on the side. Anecdotally, I've never met anyone who does that consistently. I'd be interested to hear contradicting anecdotes though.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#7
post #6
post #4

>We're set to soon see growth of physical sales eclipse the contraction of physical sales completely. Which means the graph, if expanded a bit, might look like this: It goes up a little bit! I don't understand. To me, the change in physical sales appears to be asymptotically approaching 0. Why assume it suddenly goes positive and then use that guess to make Spotify look deceptive? >Spotify is playing a little fast an…

The projection graph does assume flat physical sales. But it's a stacked chart. Paying to paying is not completely unreasonable, but imagine an airline using the average fares of its Airline Club members (who are often flying first class) vs the fares of average Americans. It's easy to inflate the number when the group of people you're talking about are rich and predisposed to being more engaged. edit to your edit: I…

Ok, gotcha. Eyeballing the graph it looks like physical alone is rising and also you seemed to be implying physical would start to grow.

I've bought so few physical music products over my life that I assume my buying habits are completely different than the average person... but I have no idea. One case you might consider is gifts. On an impulse, I bought several Christmas music CDs last year and I also happen to use ad supported Spotify.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#8
>A Spotify Premium user isn't the average music fan.

Disagree I consider myself the average music fan and the reason I like this service is that I have all my music with me where ever I go, even if its not my device. Other people I know who use Spotify are mostly average the other half isnt.

Spotify has converted me from a pirate in my younger days to a paid music subscriber.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#9
post #8

>A Spotify Premium user isn't the average music fan. Disagree I consider myself the average music fan and the reason I like this service is that I have all my music with me where ever I go, even if its not my device. Other people I know who use Spotify are mostly average the other half isnt. Spotify has converted me from a pirate in my younger days to a paid music subscriber.

In addition to having most music everywhere, I find that the Spotify sync experience is amazing. I make playlists of Spotify songs and my personal MP3s, and Spotify syncs the entire playlist to my phone. The ability to mix Spotify content with my own content, and have it all synced easily, is what really sold me on the premium subscription.

Re: Spotify Examined: What Their Report Really Says

#10
post #8

>A Spotify Premium user isn't the average music fan. Disagree I consider myself the average music fan and the reason I like this service is that I have all my music with me where ever I go, even if its not my device. Other people I know who use Spotify are mostly average the other half isnt. Spotify has converted me from a pirate in my younger days to a paid music subscriber.

I can't agree. People that use Spotify, Rdio, last.fm are edge cases, they are early adopters, often heavy users - the sort that freemium services often kick off when they mature.
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