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Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

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Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#2
The article makes decent points but these things are known to most people who understand anything about money, whether that money is Bitcoin or USD.

I have to say though that the opening line of the article is absolutely terrible:

    Bitcoin is based on the idea that money gets its intrinsic value from its scarcity..
That is a terrible thing to say. Bitcoin is not based on that. Bitcoin is currently overvalued due to speculation. It's current value far surpasses it's utility (because we don't need $15 Billion transactions in BTC right now..). This is due to speculation, and yes, that is helped along due to it's scarcity.

But even with greater speculation, if the value starts going up, it becomes much harder to swing the market. Studying history is important. Bitcoin went from $30 to $2, then from $266 to $70. $1200 to $600 isn't even close. (there is of course the chance that it will go lower, much lower, but we'll see if/when it does..)

Volatility decreases with adoption. Adoption may decrease with volatility but so far, the crazy volatility has favored adoption and awareness. Volatility will truly become a problem if mainstream adoption takes place and it continues. However, it's harder to swing a bigger market, mainstream adoption is what will protect bitcoin from volatility (speculative, or otherwse). It's much easier for a person or a group of people to swing a $1MM market, vs. a $15 Billion, vs. a $1 Trillion market.

So far, every huge volatility event has helped bitcoin become less volatile and gain value/adoption/mindshare.

I can see how someone who just found out about bitcoin is going to focus on it's volatility. This has been true of every single media agency on the planet in the last few weeks. However, anyone who has been in this long enough or has studied it will recognize that volatility is actually decreasing as the market expands (an expected result). Somehow the other HN post about people not liking creativity/alternate solutions seems to come to mind [1]. (not an attack on the author but on the general sentiment, "BITCOIN WILL FAIL EVEN THOUGH I HAVEN'T STUDIED IT AND KNOW NOTHING ABOUT IT!!!! IT'S PONZI, OR ILLEGAL, OR DRUGS, OR SOMETHING!")

TLDR; Bitcoin is way less volatile than it used to be. Bigger numbers ($1000 vs $10) don't mean more volatility.

[1] - http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/201...

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#5
Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not:

(a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers.

I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the time. What am I gaining in return for all this trouble? It simply doesn't make any sense to me.

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#6
post #5

Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not: (a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers. I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the ti…

currently, sending money over the internet without getting charged fees is non-trivial. with the number of players in the payment space, i don't expect that to be the case for very much longer, and i don't think it will be bitcoin that solves this problem.

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#7
post #5

Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not: (a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers. I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the ti…

You're doing well with your credit card because your bank allows you to do so.

Just a few days ago my debit card was blocked because I was traveling internationally and the bank suspected that it was stolen. That's great, they're trying to protect me. But then, the only way to get it unblocked was to visit the bank in person.. but I was 10,000 miles away! I tried to reason with them over the phone but they wouldn't listen. So here I was, far away from home, without access to my money because my bank was trying to protect me but had a retarded system in place for that. Eventually, I spent a few hours on the phone, got someone to pull some local stunts in my city (went to speak to the manager in person, etc.) and then got my card unblocked. You see the problem ? I don't own my money. I can't pay for my coffee with my debit card unless my bank lets me. I couldn't pay for anything, I had to apologize to my hotel and ask them to wait until this got sorted out.

I run a website that is sustained by online advertising. I usually have two options to get paid by advertisers. Paypal or Bank Wire. Paypal charges huge fees, so I opt for wire. Bank Wires take 5 days to clear (2 if I'm lucky..) and due to multiple different advertisers I end up paying over $200 in wire fees each month. I think of that as the 'cost of doing business' but really, it shouldn't be.

I used to live in Dubai two years ago and send money back home. Every time I transferred money, I would get hit with huge fees. This is a reality for immigrant workers all over the world. Western Union caters to this audience right now.

Yes, banks are good at what they do - to a certain extent. We all know them and use them. But that doesn't mean that I want to be at their mercy all the time. Things are always fine, until they are not. That's what happens to me with banks all the time.

Volatility isn't a feature of bitcoin, it's a market reality - for now. You don't have to pay for your coffee using bitcoin right now, you are right, bitcoin isn't ready for that yet.

But when it is, you'll be able to pay for your coffee, and no single 3rd party in the world (bank, western union, visa, mastercard, federal reserve, etc.) will have a say in it. Not a single entity in the world will stand between you and that delicious brew.

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#8
post #6
post #5

Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not: (a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers. I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the ti…

currently, sending money over the internet without getting charged fees is non-trivial. with the number of players in the payment space, i don't expect that to be the case for very much longer, and i don't think it will be bitcoin that solves this problem.

Curious--how/who will solve this problem?

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#9
post #6
post #5

Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not: (a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers. I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the ti…

currently, sending money over the internet without getting charged fees is non-trivial. with the number of players in the payment space, i don't expect that to be the case for very much longer, and i don't think it will be bitcoin that solves this problem.

Unfortunately the barrier to this has been counterparty risk management. The players in the payment space are limited by their contracts with Visa/Mastercard/etc. and therefore have to manage risk accordingly. This is what increases the fees. (chargebacks almost always honored, etc. etc.)

Paypal offers micropayments and their rates are by far the most competitive. You know what happens ? I get paid $2 per subscription and Paypal pays me $1.83. That's an 8.5% commission! It's the best rate in the industry! (right now..)

It's just that the more middle men you add, the more fees you're going to need. The current financial system is a truckload of middlemen and yes, they do have their utility and run immensely large networks (visa/mastercard/etc.). The only way to lower fees is to cut them out, whether that's going to be bitcoin or someone else is anyone's guess. But bitcoin is definitely a viable prototype.

Re: Why Bitcoin is Volatile aka I Told You So

#10
post #5

Here's something I've never seen addressed by bitcoin apologists. Tell me why I should "adopt" BTC if I'm not: (a) speculating (b) interesting in buying drugs or circumventing regulations around international money transfers. I see no utility in paying for software or coffee in BTC. Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process, and even once you acquire them, your coins are fluctuating in value all the ti…

>Getting hold of bitcoin is not a straightforward process

Actually, it's pretty straightforward these days: http://howtobuybitcoins.info.

By now, everyone should know the advantages of bitcoin:

* low or no fees

* transactions are nearly instant; confirmations take a few minutes

* payments are irrevocable - no chargeback issues

* you can pay anyone anywhere at anytime - no bank holidays, no paying Western Union fees to send money oversees and have it still take days

* pseudo anonymous - you don't have to provide personal information to a financial organization to make payments

* many vendors give a discounts for users willing to pay in bitcoin vs. dollars

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