Within few weeks we have seen value of a bitcoin first reach $500 and now it is approaching $1000. So, according to you what will be the value of bitcoin after 6 months? Do you see it going up or down? Why?
Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
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Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#2At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise.
I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#3A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially.
I was disappointed because I thought that was ridiculous and that I must have overfit somehow.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#4At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
Never say never :)
A bubble bursting could certainly drive it way down, sub-$100. Don't forget that less than two months ago, it was hovering around $200. 2 months does not a trend make.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#56 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#6I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution.
On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would need to be paid to _guarantee_ delivery of a bitcoin a year from now...
Just remember that it's all fun and games until the government [2] steps in.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#7At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise. I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
In case you haven't noticed, the price is already now at $900.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#86 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
You really see no difference between bitcoin and baseball cards? The lack of vision embodied by such statements is quite tiresome.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#96 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
You can't make as many Bitcoins as you can pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. That's one thing backing it. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Ever.
Re: Poll: According to you how much the value of bitcoin will be after 6 months?
#10A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially. I was…
> I must have overfit
You did overfit.