Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity

#1

Post by gregking » Mon, Jun 01, 2009, 8:49 PM UTC

I don't have enough karma to create a poll, but with the upcoming movie releases of "Transcendent Man" and "The Singularity is Near" along with recent write-ups in WSJ, Time, etc. I think the mass population is starting to get doses of Kurzweil's vision of Singularity. I am currently reading 1999's "Age of Spiritual Machines" and was wondering what you guys think of his vision.. I for one believe his claims are plausible though a bit over optimistic even with exponential growth. Do you think we will see the next evolution of mankind as he describes it? Do you think hes gone off his rocker in old age? Im interested in your thoughts!

Re: Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity

#2

Post by rw » Mon, Jun 01, 2009, 8:57 PM UTC

gregking, I recommend reading the essays at http://yudkowsky.net/singularity before having this discussion.

Re: Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity

#3

Post by Femur » Mon, Jun 01, 2009, 9:17 PM UTC

>Do you think we will see the next evolution of mankind as he describes it?

I have no idea and I don't believe anybody who says that they know. The future is unpredictable; there are no crystal balls or formulas that can tell you what is going to happen. We can always take guesses and make predictions and perhaps some will be close, but I wouldnt count on it.

Who in 1920 foresaw the internet? Who in 1990 saw a second depression in 2008/9? Who in 1950 predicted the bankruptcy of GM?

Generally though, progress keeps progressing. Man keeps thinking up cool new things and it seems, so far, to be happening at an ever increasing rate.

I think the future will continue be as unpredictable as it always is, and I do think it will continue to be awesome.

Re: Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity

#4

Post by rubing » Mon, Jun 01, 2009, 10:30 PM UTC

The criticism i've heard from many scientists is that kurzweil tends towards optimism and hyperbole b/c of his breadth of knowledge, but lacks the specialization and depth of knowledge sufficient for making credible prediction.

Re: Ask HN: Thoughts on Kurzweil and Singularity

#5

Post by SecurityMatters » Tue, Jun 02, 2009, 8:19 AM UTC

  To: Femur

Kurzweil does not claim to know what will happen. I have read several of his books and he mostly seems to talk about how these trends will cause major changes. He then outlines more than one possible outcome. And, he more cautiously says what he thinks may happen. I think his analysis is a little too simplistic in places, but that he is likely to be right about the general trends.

If you are interested in learning more, I recommend "The Singularity is Near". Or, for free, go to http://singinst.org/media/singularitysummit2008 and download videos from the conference last year.