Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
1–10 of 14 posts
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#2I've spent a lot of time recently wondering about short-term vs long-term thinking. In politics, I've heard people say that the important decisions are all "long-term", which they define as 2-3 years (Canada). In technology and science, "long-term" seems to also mean 2-3 years for so many people (the author of this article excluded, obviously). The Apple/Samsung/Google blog posts that dominate tech media almost all reek of this thinking.
It's very bizarre. In these domains, why is the prevailing thinking not that "short-term" = 2-3 years, and "long-term" = 20-30-500 years? I think the world would be a significantly better place is more people thought about what the world will look like, and how their actions will affect it, 50 years out.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#3I've spent a lot of time recently wondering about short-term vs long-term thinking. In politics, I've heard people say that the important decisions are all "long-term", which they define as 2-3 years (Canada). In technology and science, "long-term" seems to also mean 2-3 years for so many people (the author of this article excluded, obviously). The Apple/Samsung/Google blog posts that dominate tech media almost all r…
You might enjoy: " rel="nofollow">http://longnow.org/>.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#4How the hell did this make it to the front-page of HackerNews?
TLDR; (Last paragraph of the article) "So my feeling is that Google is playing the long game in mobile while Apple is missing the cloud piece and Samsung is just a hardware player at this point. And the stock market understands that."
Really...
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#5I've spent a lot of time recently wondering about short-term vs long-term thinking. In politics, I've heard people say that the important decisions are all "long-term", which they define as 2-3 years (Canada). In technology and science, "long-term" seems to also mean 2-3 years for so many people (the author of this article excluded, obviously). The Apple/Samsung/Google blog posts that dominate tech media almost all r…
Neither politics nor economics enable long-term thinking structurally.
"Long-term" is useless in economics since everything depends on your next earning call(s). If your figures are bad, you will probably let go, and there is no way to ensure continuity, since there can be no assurance that your successor(s) won't "pivot", as it is so nicely described here.
"Long-term" is equally useless in politics, were the next election date replaces your next earning call. You can promise all sorts of things that are supposed to happen after the next election, however, there is no way to ensure continuity. Your political successor(s) might continue, or they might not, instead reversing your policies and decisions. (edit: A good example is the UK's David Cameron right now, who promises a EU-referendum once he gets re-elected (and really, it should be if). Will he be elected? We will have to wait and see.)
Both our political and economic systems discourage long-term planning and thinking by focusing on short-sighted goals in the interest of present interests (be they stockholders' interests or politician's interests). Both systems are geared towards cementing one's own position of power (whether through money or policymaking), and long-term thinking is not particularly useful for that, simply because the further into the future the projected plans reach, the more uncertain they become.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#6How the hell did this make it to the front-page of HackerNews? TLDR; (Last paragraph of the article) "So my feeling is that Google is playing the long game in mobile while Apple is missing the cloud piece and Samsung is just a hardware player at this point. And the stock market understands that." Really...
What part of that seems crazy to you? It seems pretty clear, concise and true to me...
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#7How the hell did this make it to the front-page of HackerNews? TLDR; (Last paragraph of the article) "So my feeling is that Google is playing the long game in mobile while Apple is missing the cloud piece and Samsung is just a hardware player at this point. And the stock market understands that." Really...
What part of that seems crazy to you? It seems pretty clear, concise and true to me...
It all seemed reasonable enough to me, except for the fact that after talking about long-term thinking so much he posted a graph of a 24 month period, and for more than half of that Google and Apple were very close in value, contradicting what he said.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#8re: "You can change handsets pretty easily when all your data is in the cloud."
True enough. I was up and running in minutes when I upgraded an old Droid to a Samsung S III. I just had to install the couple of apps I use and logon to my Google account, then wait a few minutes. Everything was there.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#9America is short term thinking, China is long term thinking.
Re: Short Term Thinking vs Long Term Thinking
#10I'm pretty sure AAPL's selloff has less to do with long term thinking and more with retail investors/hedgies who rode the wave seeing the stock go down and decide the party's over, it's just time to get out and take profits. Rinse, repeat. AAPL's current valuation is absurdly pessimistic of the company's future prospects.