OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
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Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#2Sounds like they haven't heard of the Pareto principle.
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#3From the author:
"OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created. Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI."
When will that internal system make it out to the public? Or should it ever be released to the public is probably the better question...
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#4Sounds like they haven't heard of the Pareto principle.
Yep I think they are underestimating the last 20% of work required here, unless they know something we don't...
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#5Sounds like they haven't heard of the Pareto principle.
that's true
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#6Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#7Claiming AGI when they don't even have the best performing LLM out is a bit bold :p
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#8Claiming AGI when they don't even have the best performing LLM out is a bit bold :p
This sounds like something you say to get your evaluation up as you inch closer towards IPO...
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
that's true
but even if they do know something we don't why say this publicly? Yes, I get you are trying to boost your evaluation in the ongoing "war" against Anthropic and now XAI but I'm not sure how ready society is for AGI
This reminds me of that time Anthropic publicly admitted that Claude was generating "anxiety" patterns within its neural networks and the worst part is that, instead of acting ethically, they chose to directly manipulate "those vectors" to see what would happen and specially what is happening inside those companies could trigger a legal dilemma in the future we (society) are not prepared to deal with that
Re: OpenAI is "80% of the way" to AGI
#10From the author: "OpenAI’s charter defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Its leaders won’t quite declare they’ve reached that threshold. But they no longer speak about it as a distant abstraction. Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as…
I mean Open AI has the incentive and history of hyping it up. And the general rule the last 20% would take the same amount of time as they got the first 80%.
But having said that, it is getting ridiculously good and plenty of people find enough value out of AI as of today. In terms of hardware we already knew what the next 3 to 4 years would be like. There seems to be enough work on optimisation to further enhance the model.