Is it all just vapourware?
kirahowe.com
Is it all just vapourware?
1–10 of 206 posts
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#2The tech is real, the use cases are increasingly forced and fabricated to justify a ludicrous valuation that will never come to pass. For research and military applications ML is great, but it isn’t going to print trillions for anyone.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#3The product is being launched before the value is clear.
We've seen similar waves with new technologies before: overexposing the pros, dismissing the cons, hyper-optimism, and people using a lot of jargon without saying much of substance. The difference this time is the scale of the impact and the volume around it.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#4The trouble is that the loudest voices will dominate, so the little measurable wins adding up in most organizations don't get attention.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#5Was ready for some interesting music theory or analysis on genres of music that somehow map to the sound of vaporwave... but of course it's just about LLMs.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#6When this article talks about ONA it means https://ona.com/ - a cloud agent service that was acquired by OpenAI a couple of months ago.
(I wouldn't suggest basing my evaluation of the entire field of coding agents around that particular product.)
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#7The tech is real, the use cases are increasingly forced and fabricated to justify a ludicrous valuation that will never come to pass. For research and military applications ML is great, but it isn’t going to print trillions for anyone.
I agree, the fact that with an open model I can be modifying go and react code that I'd never consider touching as a human who values their eyesight and come up with real patches, fixes and extensions of almost any project on github is truely fascinating and, addictive.
I can absolutely see where this technology works; but like EVERYTHING THAT THESE VC FUNDED FASCISTS IGNORE, just because it works in the lab does not mean it works in real life. I can see exactly where this technology fails: it lets you spool out so much thread into the abyss that you're just going to keep refactoring everything, all the time and when it blows a hole in your project, whelllp! you wanted to refactor that too. Imagine having 100 side projects grossly built and still, you just want to move on.
Fiishing projects are still going to need work and the explosion of "this is _my_ engineering harness" is everyone twiddling their thumbs cause real projects of significant value are still about scope and "total addressable market" and not "I made an AI to diddle children, so you dont have to" crowd.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#8The product is being launched before the value is clear. We've seen similar waves with new technologies before: overexposing the pros, dismissing the cons, hyper-optimism, and people using a lot of jargon without saying much of substance. The difference this time is the scale of the impact and the volume around it.
> The product is being launched before the value is clear.
May I fix that for you?
The product is being launched before the value is there.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#9YMMV but I think with the SOTA models building a token efficient engineering loop is absolutely doable with (imho) solid development and testing practices. I see no reason to buy a 3rd party system for this either. I'm not in enterprise so don't come at me here - I'm a small shop and I'm not trying to corral 100 devs or whatever.
We've got linear boards getting cards pushed and pulled, debated over by multiple models, coded, debated, tested, accepted, etc etc.
True software factories now exist and they don't screw up the login.
Re: Is it all just vapourware?
#10When this article talks about ONA it means https://ona.com/ - a cloud agent service that was acquired by OpenAI a couple of months ago. (I wouldn't suggest basing my evaluation of the entire field of coding agents around that particular product.)
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