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Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

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Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#2

Post by glaslong »

You know, I didn't expect the Insider Trading Casinos to be quite so brazenly evil. I really thought they'd have wanted to keep a lower profile, and not appear so urgently in need of being regulated or sued out of existence. They even had the template of "Sports Betting" to work from.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#6

Post by idiotsecant »

jeffreyames wrote: post #5

[flagged]

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#7

Post by idiotsecant »

Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading.

As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#8

Post by kwikiel »

idiotsecant wrote: post #6
jeffreyames wrote: post #5

[flagged]

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

Usually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here
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