The Growing Compute Shortage

#1

Post by dmitriy_ko » Thu, Jul 16, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#2

Post by oezi » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:25 AM UTC

At least one graph showing global total datacenter compute over time and projected to come online would have been helpful.

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#3

Post by no-name-here » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:40 AM UTC

oezi wrote: post #2

At least one graph showing global total datacenter compute over time and projected to come online would have been helpful.

https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-chip-production from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#4

Post by p808 » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:40 AM UTC

[dead]

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#5

Post by twoodfin » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:40 AM UTC

If instead of us training the models to be human utility maximizers, the models had figured out how to train us to maximize their own utility, could we tell the difference?

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#6

Post by incognito124 » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC

no-name-here wrote: post #3

oezi wrote: post #2

At least one graph showing global total datacenter compute over time and projected to come online would have been helpful.

https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-chip-production from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.

> from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.

That's definitely one way to say "it doubled this year"

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#7

Post by Normal_gaussian » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC

What on earth is that H100 price trend graph. The equally spaced x-axis points are 2x6 months, 6x3 months, 9x1 month. The whole visualisation of the trend is ruined on the back of that.

There are liars, damned liars, and people who play silly buggers with scales.

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#8

Post by s08148692 » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:49 AM UTC

It will be fascinating to watch this play out. Particularly if AI-compute satellite constellations become a reality - We're trending towards a matrioshka brain and I'll be happy if I live to see the beginnings of that future

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#9

Post by Mistletoe » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC

no-name-here wrote: post #3

oezi wrote: post #2

At least one graph showing global total datacenter compute over time and projected to come online would have been helpful.

https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-chip-production from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.

Graphs like this are all I can think of when I see unsustainable euphoria like above.

https://www.bigtrends.com/education/lessons-from-the-past-10...

Re: The Growing Compute Shortage

#10

Post by sneak » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:52 AM UTC

GPUs aren’t scarce. There is just a lot of demand, so prices have gone up.

Anyone can get GPUs right now and build out what they need; it’s just a matter of paying more for them than the next company. I’ve been looking at building a multi-TB HBM system lately and they’re readily available - they just cost $400k.