Show HN: A Monte Carlo model that called the World Cup finalists 2 weeks ago

Link to preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7013338 Constructive feedback very much appreciated!

Thanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out as the two highest-probability teams, and that barely moves across different seeds.