Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

ide.mit.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

1–10 of 28 posts

Re: The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

#4

Post by curio_Pol_curio »

If you are one of those that are amused by attempts to synthesize paradigms, here's one that superposes J-curve on the hype curve

https://www.financialprofessionals.org/training-resources/re...

Q: The J-dip is where capital stock is just about to overtake investment growth, why should it lag the hype trough where presumably value overtakes interest ?

Re: The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

#5

Post by ok123456 »

This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.

Re: The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

#6

Post by metalliqaz »

ok123456 wrote: post #5

This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.

are you saying that previous technologies had effectively infinite supply?

Re: The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

#7

Post by ok123456 »

metalliqaz wrote: post #6
ok123456 wrote: post #5

This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.

are you saying that previous technologies had effectively infinite supply?

No. I'm stating where the paper's assumptions are clearly violated.

AI companies are intentionally trying to monopolize the supply of inputs needed for R&D. This violates homogeneity of degree 1.

Re: The Productivity J-Curve [pdf] (2018)

#8

Post by jmalicki »

metalliqaz wrote: post #6
ok123456 wrote: post #5

This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.

are you saying that previous technologies had effectively infinite supply?

It's not that supply was actually infinite, but you didn't realistically have situations where you said "I want to buy GPUs for a data center" only to be told "there's a 3 year waiting list."

You might have two months after NVidia 3090s came out where they were short, but it is nothing like today.

Post reply on HN