Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#1

Post by sporkland » Thu, Jun 11, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC

I've noticed an effect with openai where my codex agents seem to perform worse in the week(s) leading up to a new release. I'm wondering if the vendors tweak effort params at all to free up hardware to host the new version. It's a double win as the new model will look night and day better to their regular users when the new model is released presumably with effort back at normal levels.

Is this a known phenomenon? Are any folks trying to measure any of this objectively?

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#2

Post by Fizzadar » Thu, Jun 11, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

Reminds me of a similar effect around iPhone releases (https://www.statista.com/chart/2514/iphone-releases/, many others). Can’t say I’ve noticed any change.

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#3

Post by suprjami » Thu, Jun 11, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC

Yes, this is already a widely circulated unproven LLM conspiracy theory.

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#4

Post by sporkland » Thu, Jun 11, 2026, 10:52 PM UTC

suprjami wrote: post #3

Yes, this is already a widely circulated unproven LLM conspiracy theory.

Was hoping to understand if anyone has done any research on it. I could only really find one research paper on the topic [1], but it seems less focused on this specific issue.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.09009

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#5

Post by sama004 » Thu, Jun 11, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

suprjami wrote: post #3

Yes, this is already a widely circulated unproven LLM conspiracy theory.

tbh doesn't it depend on the service provider entirely, its their choice if they want to make it dumber or not

open source models winning is the only deliberate solution to this

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#6

Post by faangguyindia » Fri, Jun 12, 2026, 1:46 AM UTC

yes, when they come with 5.5

5.3 becomes 5.4

and optimization and improvement to 5.4 are provided as new 5.5

this gives boost effect via anchor/decoy.

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#7

Post by gauravvij137 » Fri, Jun 12, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

[dead]

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#8

Post by cyanydeez » Sun, Jun 14, 2026, 1:31 AM UTC

Fizzadar wrote: post #2

Reminds me of a similar effect around iPhone releases ( https://www.statista.com/chart/2514/iphone-releases/ , many others). Can’t say I’ve noticed any change.

more likely there's some pressure on GPU vs CPU compute resources while the AI company tries to scale out a new model, leading to some type of degradation.

Assuming it's not apple like fraud.

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#9

Post by PreownedPlaid » Sun, Jun 14, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

I figure it's because limited compute, must redirect some for latest product

Re: Ask HN: Agents get dumber before release of new model version?

#10

Post by aurenvale » Tue, Jun 16, 2026, 1:21 AM UTC

[flagged]