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Canada in Technical Recession

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Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#3

Post by MichaelZuo »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Well population grew significantly so it’s a bigger decline in per capita terms.

Notably this was even though AI systems got decent enough, supposedly, to do simple tasks and answer simple questions correctly.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#4

Post by s3graham »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

We are of course still spinning, so I'm not overly confident we haven't just glanced off a guardrail on the way to the ditch (to belabour your analogy).

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#5

Post by alephnerd »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

Even without Trump, US-Canada trade was on track to hit choppy waters. Even in the Biden admin (whose alums would have ended up in a Harris admin) there was an openness to armtwist Canada [0] into acquiescing [1]. China did the same [2] with Canada [3][4] until they acquiesced [5]. Heck, even the EU has been slowrolling the ratification of the EU-Canada CETA [6] to protect their (primarily French and Italian) industry.

Sadly, it's difficult for a country that is Canada's size to push back when faced against these sized economies.

[0] - https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-...

[1] - https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/06/can...

[2] - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-commerce-m...

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trudea...

[4] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china-tells-canada-it-should-c...

[5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/canada-china-set-make-hi...

[6] - https://carleton.ca/tradenetwork/research-publications/ceta-...

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#8

Post by rayiner »

Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

What’s funny is that Q1 per capita GDP growth in the U.S. was about 1.4% annualized (within the normal range) while Canada was only at 0.1%. Trump is the bull in the china shop but it’s not his China he’s breaking.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#10

Post by alephnerd »

rayiner wrote: post #8
Pet_Ant wrote: post #2

Considering all of Trump’s shenanigans it’s impressive it’s just that. With Hormuz, tariffs, and America first, this is the equivalent of a fender dent after spinning out on black ice.

What’s funny is that Q1 per capita GDP growth in the U.S. was about 1.4% annualized (within the normal range) while Canada was only at 0.1%. Trump is the bull in the china shop but it’s not his China he’s breaking.

Much of the capex that was invested thanks to IRA and CHIPS subsidizes is starting to go operational and trade barriers enacted during both Trump 1 and the Biden admin remain in action, so it wasn't that surprising that much of the output that was unlocked from that era is continuing.

That said, tariffs and trade barriers did help. Heck, I'm a Dem but even I argued that we needed to build trade and non-trade barriers to protect capex that was unlocked via industrial policy.

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