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AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

joshwcomeau.com

1–10 of 344 posts

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#4
> I think AI tools are more like Iron Man's suit.

There's an interesting repository with 63600 stars on GitHub (1). The developer of the repository is No 1 at the GitHub's trending contributors list (2). However, it seems like the application isn't what it's described to be (3), and the developers, on their end, are unable to clearly answer whether this is real or not, as it's just messy LLM output.

Proof that the suit alone doesn't make anyone Iron Man.

1. https://github.com/ruvnet/RuView

2. https://github.com/trending/developers?since=weekly

3. https://github.com/deletexiumu/wifi-densepose

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#5
I think they're jumping to the right conclusions - because the impetus to get as rid of as many people as possible isn't generally based on understanding, analysis, results, or lessons learned but a FOMO-like mania spread primarily through executive-class groupchats. This is, IMO, what mitchelh referred to last week as entire companies being in the grip of AI psychosis.

So while the author's points are completely true and valid, an executive will say "True, but Claude will get smarter faster than these problems and in 3 years it'll fix everything" and there's absolutely nothing you can say or do in response to this.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#6
I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing.

The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly a maintenance dead end. But I had an effortless time converging on a design that I wouldn’t have been able to do on my own (I’m not a designer). And then I had a reference design and I manually implemented it with better code (the part I am good at).

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#7
I mostly share Josh's opinion, but I think a lot of these posts that talk about Senior vs. Junior experience when working with AIs is kind of rubbish. Sure, you get better results as a Senior working with AI tooling and struggle more as a Junior. Nothing has changed in that equation except the amplification.

What folks seem to avoid is that a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant, and that becoming an expert has accelerated for those with the personal stamina to dig deep (this as a requirement hasn't changed). I spend just as much time with my AI tooling asking questions as I do asking it to "build" or "fix" things. "How does this work?". "Can you suggest other tools?".

I think some people always think about AI as an input / output relationship, when a lot of the time, the fiddling in between, with or without AI was always the important part. Yes people will suck in the beginning, against they always did. I think the good folks though will suck for a MUCH shorter time than I did getting into things.

A lot of people will drop out and get discouraged. That happened before too. Learning things requires persistence. I think the only real case to be made is that AI's sense of immediate pleasure can neuter people away from running into friction. AI natives likely won't understand friction and question it.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#9
I see two points:

1. AIs aren't yet good at architecture.

2. AIs aren't yet good at imagining technically exciting stuff to build.

And I agree that there's still space there to build a career in the short to medium term (plus Jevons Paradox). When both those points are no longer true we are certainly much closer to, dear I say it, agi. I suspect that (1) will be solved for somewhat limited domains in the near future using harnesses. And it could snowball from there.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#10
Hmm. I think extrapolating from the reddit people who say "I tried vibe coding an entire app from scratch and all I said was fix this and make no mistakes and it didn't work" is a bad data source and will give you the wrong intuition. Of course it won't work when you hold it like that. But put just a tiny bit of knowledge and guidance into the prompt and AI will nail it.

I didn't think this 6 months ago but today after what I've seen these models debug and accomplish in established, messy production monoliths, I'm fully convinced even the worst vibe coders are only a year or two away from being able to actually create something from scratch and have it not blow up 50 files in.

So I guess I take the totally opposite stance, today's AI is the worst AI will ever be at coding, and I believe the vested interests behind AI do not plan on making it any worse at this task, so...

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