How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
1–10 of 17 posts
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#2Who is doing this guys PR? clearly a series of nearly "ghostwritten" "stories"... this is about the 10th "version" with the same headline. Ranging from US tech blogs to UK newspapers... The guy is writing a book and a democratic partisan -- says even...the New York Times.
For reference:
_____________
Why political journalists can't stand Nate Silver |
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4736736
Nate Silver Took A Huge Shot Against Mainstream Political Pundits In His Latest Election Forecast
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-on-who-political-...
Pundits versus probabilities: The misguided backlash against Nate Silver
http://www.cjr.org/swing_states_project/pundits_versus_proba...
how-statistician-nate-silver-has-thrown-a-wrench-into-tradtional-election-metrics
http://readwrite.com/2012/11/05/how-statistician-nate-silver...
People Who Can't Do Math Are So Mad At Nate Silver
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/10/people-who-c...
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but then something different?
NY Times public editor: Silver has Dubious Judgement
http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/under-attac...
He has been out there promoting his book...which has increased his visibility further....In short, he’s everywhere...
UK Telegraph: Nate Silver is partisan and wrong.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100186850/romne...
We’ve witnessed the evolution of polling from an objective gauge of the public mood to a propaganda tool: partisan and inaccurate.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#3Who is doing this guys PR? clearly a series of nearly "ghostwritten" "stories"... this is about the 10th "version" with the same headline. Ranging from US tech blogs to UK newspapers... The guy is writing a book and a democratic partisan -- says even...the New York Times. For reference: _____________ Why political journalists can't stand Nate Silver | http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4736736 Nate Silver Took A Hug…
It's hard to create a dramatic image of a close race when someone crunches numbers, says "nah," and convinces a lot of people. Attempts to discredit him were were bound to happen as the election got closer, along with inevitable defenses.
I think you're so eager to unearth a PR conspiracy that you ignore the more plausible explanation: lazy media.
edit: Check 001sky's submission history.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#4Who is doing this guys PR? clearly a series of nearly "ghostwritten" "stories"... this is about the 10th "version" with the same headline. Ranging from US tech blogs to UK newspapers... The guy is writing a book and a democratic partisan -- says even...the New York Times. For reference: _____________ Why political journalists can't stand Nate Silver | http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4736736 Nate Silver Took A Hug…
It's hard to create a dramatic image of a close race when someone crunches numbers, says "nah," and convinces a lot of people. Attempts to discredit him were were bound to happen as the election got closer, along with inevitable defenses. I think you're so eager to unearth a PR conspiracy that you ignore the more plausible explanation: lazy media. edit: Check 001sky's submission history.
No, this is not an exercise in statistics (which I understand, trust me). The NY times public editor article clearly articulates he's promoting his book.
Articles don't get written by people who wake up and all write the same headline, even lazy journalists do better than that, unless they are being fed information from PRs.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#5Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's hard to create a dramatic image of a close race when someone crunches numbers, says "nah," and convinces a lot of people. Attempts to discredit him were were bound to happen as the election got closer, along with inevitable defenses. I think you're so eager to unearth a PR conspiracy that you ignore the more plausible explanation: lazy media. edit: Check 001sky's submission history.
No, this is not an exercise in statistics (which I understand, trust me). The NY times public editor article clearly articulates he's promoting his book. Articles don't get written by people who wake up and all write the same headline, even lazy journalists do better than that, unless they are being fed information from PRs.
So what? HN is full of obvious PR. PG even has an essay on it (http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html). That doesn't discredit him. You say you know statistics. Take a crack at his methodology if you think it's flawed: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
I'm sure it would make a great blog post.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, this is not an exercise in statistics (which I understand, trust me). The NY times public editor article clearly articulates he's promoting his book. Articles don't get written by people who wake up and all write the same headline, even lazy journalists do better than that, unless they are being fed information from PRs.
So what? HN is full of obvious PR. PG even has an essay on it ( http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html ). That doesn't discredit him. You say you know statistics. Take a crack at his methodology if you think it's flawed: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/ I'm sure it would make a great blog post.
I don't need to argue with him. Its the amusing narrative that using statistics somehow original or new that's interesting. I've even said here on HN some of the data visualizations they do are great.
But the storylines or headlines are clearly cynical, PR driven linkbait. Just look at them. They all say the same thing, just slightly disquised like an undergrad trying to hide his plagiarism.
Its just self-awareness that is missing. That's why i posted links: so people can see the patterns.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
So what? HN is full of obvious PR. PG even has an essay on it ( http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html ). That doesn't discredit him. You say you know statistics. Take a crack at his methodology if you think it's flawed: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/ I'm sure it would make a great blog post.
I don't need to argue with him. Its the amusing narrative that using statistics somehow original or new that's interesting. I've even said here on HN some of the data visualizations they do are great. But the storylines or headlines are clearly cynical, PR driven linkbait. Just look at them. They all say the same thing, just slightly disquised like an undergrad trying to hide his plagiarism. Its just self-awareness t…
It seems like you're trying to discredit Nate Silver by how bad his PR people are. I assume everything is PR so I can focus on merits. Are you interested in merits or taking shots at something you've (apparently) given no thought to?
It's not like 2012 is the first time he's used this methodology. I've been following 538 since it launched in 2008 and generally find it to be insightful and informative. And more right than wrong. And when he's wrong, he usually has a good post to talk about how he got it wrong, and how the miss will factor into future projections.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't need to argue with him. Its the amusing narrative that using statistics somehow original or new that's interesting. I've even said here on HN some of the data visualizations they do are great. But the storylines or headlines are clearly cynical, PR driven linkbait. Just look at them. They all say the same thing, just slightly disquised like an undergrad trying to hide his plagiarism. Its just self-awareness t…
It seems like you're trying to discredit Nate Silver by how bad his PR people are. I assume everything is PR so I can focus on merits. Are you interested in merits or taking shots at something you've (apparently) given no thought to? It's not like 2012 is the first time he's used this methodology. I've been following 538 since it launched in 2008 and generally find it to be insightful and informative. And more right…
Whatever. Ad hominem attacks are actually useful when people try to dress up their politics as "science" or "objectivity". Try reading Nietzche. Nothing is new here. The purpose of his analytics are propoganda, plain and simple. The notion that an election will be an "independent test" of a pollster's predictions the goal they are all . That is why campaigns employ them, to test their messages, react, change message (as appropriate) and influence the public mood, etc.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like you're trying to discredit Nate Silver by how bad his PR people are. I assume everything is PR so I can focus on merits. Are you interested in merits or taking shots at something you've (apparently) given no thought to? It's not like 2012 is the first time he's used this methodology. I've been following 538 since it launched in 2008 and generally find it to be insightful and informative. And more right…
Whatever. Ad hominem attacks are actually useful when people try to dress up their politics as "science" or "objectivity". Try reading Nietzche. Nothing is new here. The purpose of his analytics are propoganda, plain and simple. The notion that an election will be an "independent test" of a pollster's predictions the goal they are all . That is why campaigns employ them, to test their messages, react, change message…
What you're saying is you don't care. You can just say that. "I don't care to look further to see if this person's work has merit." That's ok. But don't try to dress it up as some kind of cynical enlightenment.
Re: How Statistician Nate Silver Threw A Wrench Into Traditional Election Metrics
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Whatever. Ad hominem attacks are actually useful when people try to dress up their politics as "science" or "objectivity". Try reading Nietzche. Nothing is new here. The purpose of his analytics are propoganda, plain and simple. The notion that an election will be an "independent test" of a pollster's predictions the goal they are all . That is why campaigns employ them, to test their messages, react, change message…
What you're saying is you don't care. You can just say that. "I don't care to look further to see if this person's work has merit." That's ok. But don't try to dress it up as some kind of cynical enlightenment.
No, i don't care to argue with you.