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Are LLM merge rates not getting better?

entropicthoughts.com

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Re: Are LLM merge rates not getting better?

#4
Interesting article, although with so few data points and such a specific time slice it is difficult to draw serious conclusions about the "improvement" of LLM models.

It's notably lacking newer models (4.5 Opus, 4.6 Sonnet) and models from Gemini.

LLMs appear to naturally progress in short leaps followed by longer plateaus, as breakthroughs are developed such as chain-of-thought, mixture-of-experts, sub-agents, etc.

Re: Are LLM merge rates not getting better?

#8
> This means llms have not improved in their programming abilities for over a year. Isn’t that wild? Why is nobody talking about this?

Because it's not true. They have improved tremendously in the last year, but it looks like they've hit a wall in the last 3 months. Still seeing some improvements but mostly in skills and token use optimization.

Re: Are LLM merge rates not getting better?

#9
I don't think it's true, but am I alone in wishing it was? My world is disrupted somewhat but so far I don't think we have a thing that upends our way of life completely yet. If it stayed exactly this good I'd be pretty content.

Re: Are LLM merge rates not getting better?

#10

That's an interesting claim, but I don't see it in my own work. They have got better but it's very hard to quantify. I just find myself editing their work much less these days (currently using GPT 5.4).

The problem with evals is the underlying rubric will always be either subjective, or a quantitative score based on something that is likely now baked into the training set directly.

You kind of have to go on "feels" for a lot of this.

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