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Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

bbc.com

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Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#4
This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t...

It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infrastructure in the name of ideological purity, quite the combination.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#5
The stat has been raised frequently of late that 20% of the world's oil floes through the Straight.

My understanding is that its 20% of total oil, but that around half of all oil production is used domestically where it is produced and never enters global markets.

Unless I missed something when fact checking that, Iran is capable cutting off 40% of all purchasable oil.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#6
post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

Not really. The U.S. can send in the ground force to restore the trade around the Gulf. The BUT is obvious in this case tho.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#7
I think it’s wild to me just how much my mainstream news doesn’t feel like it’s covering some of what’s really going on. I have to go to YouTube to see that Iran is successfully fighting back in many ways including hitting oil tankers and depots.

Not that I’m claiming the CBC and such are doing something sinister here. Just that I no-longer get the full story vibe I recall getting back in previous U.S. wars.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#8
Price moves have hysteresis. The risk element in moving Oil hasn't gone, and the companies are looking to recover lost income in the month(s) and so whilst there is supply, there aren't necessarily boats in convenient places, or complete freedoms to walk off contracts.

Give it 30 days, things might have changed.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#9
post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

[deleted]

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#10
post #6
post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

Not really. The U.S. can send in the ground force to restore the trade around the Gulf. The BUT is obvious in this case tho.

That's not a reasonable option, it's a bear-trap. Once troops are on the ground it will be another decades-long slog, and one that ends like Afghanistan at best. At worst, this looks like America's version of Ukraine.
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