Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
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Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#2> Following multiple public reports on the growing influence of prediction markets and their potential for corruption, Merkley and Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act — a new bill to ban the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from trading event contracts. The bill will ensure that federal elected officials maintain their oath of office to serve the people by preventing them from trading on information that they gained through their role.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#3It makes sense to ban government officials from betting. It's hard enough to enforce insider trading. With legal betting, it's literally impossible.
Another worrying issue with betting is just how prevalent the last election was in betting markets. In elections won by thousands or even just hundreds of votes, betting markets can skew results where betters vote for someone just purely for the bet and persuade, shill for the person they bet on.
I can imagine betters placing a bet on a candidate and then launching a defamation campaign against the other.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#4> you have the perfect recipe to undermine the public’s belief that government officials are working for the public good
The public already does not believe this. Less than 25% approve of your work.
> This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors
And this is designed to "increase trust?"
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#5Unfortunately, it's not just elected officials that are problematic for prediction markets. The Secretary of War, for instance is not an elected official nor are leaders of the armed forces and there is definitely a prediction market for war. Multiply this by every powerful appointee and every career bureaucrat and see what kind of picture that paints.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#6If we can't ban them from trading stocks, good luck with this.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#7If we can't ban them from trading stocks, good luck with this.
Don't be needlessly cynical.
This is a good effort. So is the ban on stock trading. This administration is such that it is bringing corruption to the fore in a way not seen in generations. Things are always hard to pass at the start. Keep pushing and this administration will create a massive opportunity to swing the pendulum if we can (as hard as it is now) retain some optimism.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#8It wouldn't be a problem if the law was actually applied to prediction markets. If crime is de facto already legal, more laws seems like the least of ones worries.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#9If we can't ban them from trading stocks, good luck with this.
It's easier to ban things before they become entrenched than after. Banning stock trading is hard today because most senators have been doing it for years before getting elected.
I'd be in favor of senators doing prediction markets, just limited to small dollar trades so they can get better at predicting.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
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