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I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

grumpy-economist.com

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Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#3
Yes, most people (including myself) do not understand how modern LLMs work (especially if we consider the most recent architectural and training improvements).

There's the 3b1b video series which does a pretty good job, but now we are interfacing with models that probably have parameter counts in each layer larger than the first models that we interacted with.

The novel insights that these models can produce is truly shocking, I would guess even for someone who does understand the latest techniques.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#6
post #2

[flagged]

The article author claims AI was not used to write the article. Personally I believe them, considering the content of the article.

The article as written is entirely consistent with John Cochrane's style. I have been reading him off and on over the years so I think I have a decent baseline for comparison. It doesn't smell of AI to me.

If anything, even the included quotes from Refine don't smell much of typical AI, but maybe I am less discerning there. I did notice the em-dashes though!

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#7
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article author claims AI was not used to write the article. Personally I believe them, considering the content of the article.

For what it's worth, my AI content blocker blocked the article.

Maybe because it quotes (at length) AI-generated output?

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#8
post #3

Yes, most people (including myself) do not understand how modern LLMs work (especially if we consider the most recent architectural and training improvements). There's the 3b1b video series which does a pretty good job, but now we are interfacing with models that probably have parameter counts in each layer larger than the first models that we interacted with. The novel insights that these models can produce is truly…

What's the latest novel insight you have encountered?

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article author claims AI was not used to write the article. Personally I believe them, considering the content of the article.

For what it's worth, my AI content blocker blocked the article.

Happens a lot to highly reasonable, well written texts without orthographical errors.

Re: I don't know how you get here from “predict the next word”

#10
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article author claims AI was not used to write the article. Personally I believe them, considering the content of the article.

For what it's worth, my AI content blocker blocked the article.

It’s worth nothing, to the point it makes people wonder why you even volunteer that information.
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