AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
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Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#2Interesting yc vid on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqwSb2hO1jE
tl;dr it argues when there's a dramatic improvement in the efficiency of production of a good or service, its per-unit cost goes down so much that demand skyrockets, leading to greater demand for employees in that sector. The examples it gives are radiologists (after neural nets were predicted to be able to perform their jobs essentially for free), and dock workers
If this happens in the case of SWEs, it would mean a 'unit' of software will be able to be produced much more cheaply, but the demand for and price (i.e. salaries) of SWEs might stay the same or increase.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#3Easy to cherry pick examples and counter-examples. See the luddites for counter-example. Artisans making high-quality textiles are no longer broadly in demand. Lots of pro examples too, I just don't find analogies helpful. It may be that like clothes, there's only so much need for software. We don't really need 1000 browsers or operating systems after all, 3 or 4 good ones is enough (and 90% of people use 1 or 2), despite there being free very good alternatives (unit costs 0, demand still low).
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#4It reduces the amount of engineers needed. I'd say by half and web, graphic designers and front end developers coding the designs are really no longer needed.
I was just laid off from my job of 8 years in which I was the UX Researcher, Designer, Front-End Dev and Customer UX Support. In a week I have sold my house and am downsizing significantly and in two years or less will be working as an RN(nurse). I will try to get back into my field but the current administration and the many tech layoffs has flooded the market with people like me looking for job. All the while AI is eating my career & field. It just doesnt seem wise that my career of 20 years is going to be around in the next ten years.
Also, will there be interfaces we have today in five to ten years or so? My guess is AI is the interface that does everything for us through voice (Open AI's upcoming device) or text .. now we still could have handheld AI phones or devices but where AI does everything including presents articles, games we play, etc and all from these AI devices' lock screen (websites are not visited much)
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#5Easy to cherry pick examples and counter-examples. See the luddites for counter-example. Artisans making high-quality textiles are no longer broadly in demand. Lots of pro examples too, I just don't find analogies helpful. It may be that like clothes, there's only so much need for software. We don't really need 1000 browsers or operating systems after all, 3 or 4 good ones is enough (and 90% of people use 1 or 2), de…
> It may be that like clothes, there's only so much need for software.
Clothing demand has increased greatly in the past decade due to fast fashion. Much of this clothing is designed to cost a few bucks, last a few wears, then get thrown out. It's an ecological disaster.
Maybe we'll see something similar happen with software — as production costs fall, trends will shift toward few-use throwaway software. I highly suspect this is already happening.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#6"Will AI replace software engineers?" is not the right question and stems from a misunderstanding of how tech affects humans and how they work.
Tech is a tool. It will take away some jobs, and then create new ones. Think of a combine tractor -- it took away crop picking jobs, but created a new job of combine tractor driver. It bumps productivity.
The correct frame is "how can software engineers (or anyone, for that matter) use AI to increase my productivity?" With that frame, AI does not replace engineers; rather, engineers are in the best position to understand how it deliver products faster and implement that understanding.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#7End of the engineer. Rise of the architect.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#8Interesting yc vid on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqwSb2hO1jE tl;dr it argues when there's a dramatic improvement in the efficiency of production of a good or service, its per-unit cost goes down so much that demand skyrockets, leading to greater demand for employees in that sector. The examples it gives are radiologists (after neural nets were predicted to be able to perform their jobs essentially for…
Yes, but then many young people today won't pursuing a career in SW development because of the doomsday stories... which - if your case turns out to be true - will lead to an even higher shortage of SWEs.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#9Interesting yc vid on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqwSb2hO1jE tl;dr it argues when there's a dramatic improvement in the efficiency of production of a good or service, its per-unit cost goes down so much that demand skyrockets, leading to greater demand for employees in that sector. The examples it gives are radiologists (after neural nets were predicted to be able to perform their jobs essentially for…
The argument here is basically, let’s say a particular widget requires 3 human steps to make. If we replace the most expensive step with a cheaper automated alternative, the overall cost of the widget will fall and so demand for the widget will rise. And so even though the human effort to create one widget will reduce, the increase in demand will mean the reduced work per widget * new widget demand is often >= old work per widget * old widget demand.
The problem with this argument is that AI, or at least the vision of AI companies and governments are spending trillions of dollars on, purports to replace the human itself. Put another way it intends to automate all the 3 steps (as well as any ancillary services in marketing the widget, legal services in protecting the company, etc). So any increase in demand does not lead to any additional labor since the labor per unit is 0.
This video’s argument simply collapses the debate back to whether AI can largely replace human intelligence or not.
Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)
#10Easy to cherry pick examples and counter-examples. See the luddites for counter-example. Artisans making high-quality textiles are no longer broadly in demand. Lots of pro examples too, I just don't find analogies helpful. It may be that like clothes, there's only so much need for software. We don't really need 1000 browsers or operating systems after all, 3 or 4 good ones is enough (and 90% of people use 1 or 2), de…
> It may be that like clothes, there's only so much need for software. Clothing demand has increased greatly in the past decade due to fast fashion. Much of this clothing is designed to cost a few bucks, last a few wears, then get thrown out. It's an ecological disaster. Maybe we'll see something similar happen with software — as production costs fall, trends will shift toward few-use throwaway software. I highly sus…
> trends will shift toward few-use throwaway software
software has worked this way since the rise of the internet and SaaS. consumers rarely need to install anything locally other than a browser.