AGI Is Here

Who cares about AGI? If it happens some day, it will not good for me and I can do nothing about it, so, who cares?

No, it's not here. Sophisticated automatic parrot is not intelligent.

I'll say AGI is "here" when they are agents in our Slack/chat, emails, and planning tools doing that strategic work that management does. As a dev, "AI" is currently just a handy English language interface to web search.

> If you appeared in a puff of smoke before the authors of that paper, just after publication — a few months before half of them cleaved from OpenAI to form Anthropic — and carried with you a laptop linked through time to the big models of 2026, what would their appraisal be ? There’s no doubt in my mind they would say: Wow, we really did it ! This is obviously AGI!

I really don't think this would be the reaction. I'd say they would (or should) look at the systems we have now and see a very clear path between where they were then and where we are now, with all the positives _and negatives_. We still get hallucinations. We still get misalignment, if anything as capabilities have improved so has the potential for damage when things go wrong. It's pretty clear to me that late 2025 models are just better versions of what we had in 2021.

That's not to say they're not more useful, more valuable, they absolutely are! But that's all about product integrations, speed, and turning up the dial on inference compute. They're still fundamentally the same things.

The next big step forward, the thing that LLMs are obviously missing, is memory. The fact we're messing around with context windows, attention across the context space, chat lookup and fact saving features, etc, are all patches over the fact that LLMs can't remember anything in the way that humans (or pretty much any animal) can. It's clear that we need a paradigm shift on memory to unlock the next level of performance.

You could argue LLMs already achieve the same work that management does.