The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
garymarcus.substack.com
The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
1–10 of 28 posts
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#2It is a bit silly calling a top at this point.
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#3> Without world models. you cannot achieve reliability. And without reliability, profits are limited.
Surprising to simultaneously announce the end of the road yet point to the road ahead
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#4> Whether it all falls apart suddenly, or gradually, I do not know. And LLMs will continue to exist.
This is one thing I don't get. Why will LLMs still exist if AI companies go bust? Will we have stagnant models that can't be improved anymore as a service? Isn't each query still a monumental computing task that they lose money on?
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#5> Without world models. you cannot achieve reliability. And without reliability, profits are limited. Surprising to simultaneously announce the end of the road yet point to the road ahead
It is not a road, it is a runway.
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#6> Whether it all falls apart suddenly, or gradually, I do not know. And LLMs will continue to exist. This is one thing I don't get. Why will LLMs still exist if AI companies go bust? Will we have stagnant models that can't be improved anymore as a service? Isn't each query still a monumental computing task that they lose money on?
The task is not so monumental that it could not be provided at a reasonable price or financed through advertising, but as long as major players are willing to operate at a loss, you face little choice but to operate at a loss yourself.
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#7> Whether it all falls apart suddenly, or gradually, I do not know. And LLMs will continue to exist. This is one thing I don't get. Why will LLMs still exist if AI companies go bust? Will we have stagnant models that can't be improved anymore as a service? Isn't each query still a monumental computing task that they lose money on?
Inference is probably okay priced, at least at API prices.
The salaries, training and especially data center build out might be a little crazy right now.
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#8Still the same flaw in his analysis. Humans are unreliable too and the entire damn economy runs on them. You just need good enough, and AI is getting better daily.
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#9> Whether it all falls apart suddenly, or gradually, I do not know. And LLMs will continue to exist. This is one thing I don't get. Why will LLMs still exist if AI companies go bust? Will we have stagnant models that can't be improved anymore as a service? Isn't each query still a monumental computing task that they lose money on?
If I use an LLM for programming why would it need to update constantly. As soon as you could run a SOTA class model on let’s say the surely upcoming 1TB RAM MacStudio it is out there and can never be taken back. If that was my only venue to get access I would shell out those 10k in a heartbeat
Re: The AI bubble is all over now, baby blue
#10Still the same flaw in his analysis. Humans are unreliable too and the entire damn economy runs on them. You just need good enough, and AI is getting better daily.
It only gets better daily at stuff it already kinda could do.
It can write my code a bit less shitty tomorrow, but that doesn't sound like the fulfillment of the promises given.
Tomorrow, another company will yet again fail to integrate agentic workflows.