Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

jalapenos wrote: post #3

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

An option trader would bet on the volatility index of the predictions, instead of the prediction itself.

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#5

Post by s1mplicissimus » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 11:58 AM UTC

jalapenos wrote: post #3

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

looking forward to recommendations - i assume it's not easy to come up with an objectifiable state of affairs for "bubble has popped"

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#6

Post by zerosizedweasle » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 11:59 AM UTC

jalapenos wrote: post #3

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

It's worthless now, the 'AI boosters or I go broke crowd' - a significant section of the posters here - got to it. It was a lot different a few minutes ago.

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#7

Post by spwa4 » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 12:00 PM UTC

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #2

https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd7846-9e79-431c-a91e-06cea8c80... Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle

Don't the cross-investments mean that if any of the AI behemoths (of which, perhaps surprisingly, Oracle is one) goes down, they all go down? Sundar Pichai even went on the front page of the BBC to state as much, and that despite Google probably being the most insulated of the bunch.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#8

Post by rvz » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 12:08 PM UTC

My very firm timeframe is an economic crash before 2030 and a 10% increase in global unemployment before 2035.

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#9

Post by alex-moon » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 12:31 PM UTC

Point of curiosity: the community prediction is, presumably, an arithmetic mean, but I argue that is not a good model for a dataset that almost certainly gets more dense closer to the present, creating a gradient out into the future. It would be great to see the geometric mean as well.

Re: Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet?

#10

Post by jqpabc123 » Mon, Dec 01, 2025, 1:49 PM UTC

When it pops, you won't need to ask. The answer will be obvious to everyone.

The current AI bubble is a case study in how capitalist markets can be rigged by large companies.