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Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

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Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#4
post #3

If entry-level roles are shrinking, how should companies rethink talent development? Without the traditional “bottom rungs,” how do we grow future seniors if fewer juniors ever get the chance to start?

presumably this also means the relative value of seniors is now increasing, as the pipeline to replace them is smaller.

its like how the generic "we take anyone" online security degree has poisoned that market -- nothing but hoards of entry level goobers, but no real heavy hitters on the mid-to-high end. put another way, the market is tight but there are still reasonable options for seniors.

then again we live under capitalism

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#5
post #3

If entry-level roles are shrinking, how should companies rethink talent development? Without the traditional “bottom rungs,” how do we grow future seniors if fewer juniors ever get the chance to start?

presumably this also means the relative value of seniors is now increasing, as the pipeline to replace them is smaller. its like how the generic "we take anyone" online security degree has poisoned that market -- nothing but hoards of entry level goobers, but no real heavy hitters on the mid-to-high end. put another way, the market is tight but there are still reasonable options for seniors. then again we live under…

Agree, increased value and demand for seniors. But how will the market solve the generation of new seniors if juniors are getting less opportunities?

Take the software development sector as example: if we replace junior devs by AI coding agents and put senior devs to review the agent's work, how will we produce more seniors (with wide experience in the sector) if the juniors are not coding anymore?

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#7
post #2

New Harvard's study (62M workers, 285k firms) shows firms adopting generative AI cut junior hiring sharply while continuing to grow senior roles — eroding the bottom rungs of career ladders and reshaping how careers start.

In 10 years where do the senior dev's come from? Real question. Seems like with lower entry level jobs now, in 10 years there won't be seniors to hire.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#8
post #2

New Harvard's study (62M workers, 285k firms) shows firms adopting generative AI cut junior hiring sharply while continuing to grow senior roles — eroding the bottom rungs of career ladders and reshaping how careers start.

In 10 years where do the senior dev's come from? Real question. Seems like with lower entry level jobs now, in 10 years there won't be seniors to hire.

In 10 years a lot of the senior developers might be cut as well due to strongly improved AI.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#9
post #2

New Harvard's study (62M workers, 285k firms) shows firms adopting generative AI cut junior hiring sharply while continuing to grow senior roles — eroding the bottom rungs of career ladders and reshaping how careers start.

In 10 years where do the senior dev's come from? Real question. Seems like with lower entry level jobs now, in 10 years there won't be seniors to hire.

I think a large chunk of people are naively assuming exponential growth and no longer needing senior devs in 10 years.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#10
post #3

If entry-level roles are shrinking, how should companies rethink talent development? Without the traditional “bottom rungs,” how do we grow future seniors if fewer juniors ever get the chance to start?

When were companies ever thinking about talent development, especially for SWE? We had some loose "mentorship" roles but IME most folks are left to their own devices or just learn by bandwagoning things from reddit.
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