AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
bloomberg.com
AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
1–10 of 121 posts
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#2Oracle's mega moves in the market (cpl hundred $B in market cap),due to their claim that OpenAI was doing a multi-year commit to move much of their workloads to their cloud ... likely a heavy revenue play rather than profit... with an aspiration to push as much CapEx deprecation to out years as possible (btw Oracle where is all the capex?) AKA Financial aengineering... just shows how overly leveraged this bubble has become.
The Economist recently featured a piece pointing out that it's no longer risk that drives the market but a balance of fear of loss and fear of missing out (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/06/w...). FOMO is out of control right now
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#3Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#4This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were.
This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mobile phone was, but not going to live up to the hype in the near term.
It's definitely interesting how in anonymous forums there's a lot more people pointing out that they think this is hype whereas when we wear our professional hats many of us join in. It's like we all want you to party going no we all know what's going to happen
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#5Oracle's mega moves in the market (cpl hundred $B in market cap),due to their claim that OpenAI was doing a multi-year commit to move much of their workloads to their cloud ... likely a heavy revenue play rather than profit... with an aspiration to push as much CapEx deprecation to out years as possible (btw Oracle where is all the capex?) AKA Financial aengineering... just shows how overly leveraged this bubble has…
This Oracle surge and revenue predictions really feels like jumping the shark. I mean, it's Oracle.... I've never felt confident enough to bet against a company, but a short position on Oracle may well be too tempting for me.
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#6Fiat money in a credit based inflationary environment is free. Oil money is free, it literally comes from the ground. There's no "losses".
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#7This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…
>> in anonymous forums there's a lot more people pointing out that they think this is hype whereas when we wear our professional hats many of us join in
When your boss is hyping it up and demanding all hands on deck full steam ahead on the Good Ship AI, lots of people join in out of fear, particularly in the currently awful job market which is partly being ruined by AI itself.
Some of us just stay quiet, keep our heads down, and plug away using tools actually fit for purpose, like LSPs and refactoring tools.
Very few have the courage to stand up in a professional setting and say the emperor has no clothes.
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#8Fiat money in a credit based inflationary environment is free. Oil money is free, it literally comes from the ground. There's no "losses".
Not sure what this has to do with the article.
Oil isn't "free" anyway, it takes energy to make energy, and EROEI has been going down for some time as the easy oil is extracted.
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#9This “article” is clickbait. Controversial title with no substance, asking “why are companies investing heavily in a technology that works for some (limited but valuable) use cases, when they could invest in pure R&D for something that might be better someday”.
Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile
#10Oracle's mega moves in the market (cpl hundred $B in market cap),due to their claim that OpenAI was doing a multi-year commit to move much of their workloads to their cloud ... likely a heavy revenue play rather than profit... with an aspiration to push as much CapEx deprecation to out years as possible (btw Oracle where is all the capex?) AKA Financial aengineering... just shows how overly leveraged this bubble has…
> FOMO is out of control right now
Exactly. The whole stock market is currently behaving like the crypto bubbles.