The Last Programmers?

#1

Post by kiyanwang » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:01 AM UTC

Re: The Last Programmers?

#2

Post by ben_w » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:36 AM UTC

> They'll judge us the way we judge people who manually calculated ledgers before spreadsheets existed. Impressive dedication to craft, but ultimately unnecessary effort spent on problems that got solved by better tools.

One of my dad's anecdotes was of someone who was very proud of the fact that they could multiply numbers with a slide rule faster than any of the then-newfangled electronic hand calculators.

A lot of stuff changed between him being born in 1939 and when he took early retirement in the late 90s.

Kinda weird that it's possible he might be one of the first generation programmers and I might be one of the last.

Such rapid change.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#3

Post by davydm » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:42 AM UTC

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years."

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost working" codebases.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#4

Post by Rzor » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:49 AM UTC

davydm wrote: post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

I'm in the same camp as you where I don't think the hype is justified, but when it comes to the medium and long term adoption I can easily see LLMs getting good enough so that programmers will be more like plumbers than system designers and maintainers. At the very least it's going to be hard to justify big teams. I do wonder if tech is ready for more competition then because starving is a hell of a motivator.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#5

Post by MaxLeiter » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:50 AM UTC

davydm wrote: post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

Think about how much progress has been made in the last 2-5 years. I can understand skepticism but not the HA HA HAs

Re: The Last Programmers?

#6

Post by sarchertech » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC

The author works for a company that builds an “AI ad maker”. And they link to it in the first paragraph.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#7

Post by zwnow » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:55 AM UTC

MaxLeiter wrote: post #5

davydm wrote: post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

Think about how much progress has been made in the last 2-5 years. I can understand skepticism but not the HA HA HAs

When there's something new and shiny progress is made fast until we reach the inevitable ceiling. AI has unsolved issues. The bubble will eventually pop and the damages will be astounding. I will sign the HA HA HAs. People are delusional.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#8

Post by varjag » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:56 AM UTC

I liked the author's chocolate analogy although not in the way they intended. Yes it's a known reproducible tech and yes Hershey dominates there. Hershey is also the worst crap you can buy for the money.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#9

Post by quantiq » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:57 AM UTC

> The only bottleneck is mdoel (sic) speed and quality. But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years.

Anytime I think the AI bubble can't go any higher I'm reminded of the fact there are people who genuinely believe this. These are the people boardrooms are listening to despite the evidence for actual developer productivity savings being dubious at best: https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...

Re: The Last Programmers?

#10

Post by jennyholzer » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 11:58 AM UTC

MaxLeiter wrote: post #5

davydm wrote: post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

Think about how much progress has been made in the last 2-5 years. I can understand skepticism but not the HA HA HAs

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA