Underwriting Superintelligence
underwriting-superintelligence.com
Underwriting Superintelligence
1–10 of 36 posts
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#2The "Incentive Flywheel" of AI: how insurance unlocks secure Al progress and enables faster AI adoption.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#3This only works if there are negative consequences faced by the insured parties when things go wrong. If all the negative consequences are faced by society and there are no regulations that incur that burden on the companies building AI, then we'll have unchecked development.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#4I love it!
Finally some clear thinking on a very important topic.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#5> We’re navigating a tightrope as Superintelligence nears. If the West slows down unilaterally, China could dominate the 21st century.
I never understood this argument
as a non-USian: I'd prefer to be under the Chinese boot rather than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI
and it is certainly no reason to try to do everything we possibly can to try and summon a machine god
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#6> We’re navigating a tightrope as Superintelligence nears. If the West slows down unilaterally, China could dominate the 21st century. I never understood this argument as a non-USian: I'd prefer to be under the Chinese boot rather than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI and it is certainly no reason to try to do everything we possibly can to try and summon a machine god
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI
That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot?
> certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god
The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will eventually do it. Does it matter who does it first? I don't know. Yes, making it happen faster might be bad. Waiting until someone else does it first might be worse.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#7I'm biased because my company (Newfront) is in insurance but there are a lot of great points here. This jumped out: "By 2030, global AI data centers alone are projected to require $5 trillion of investment, while enterprise AI spend is forecast to reach $500 billion."
There's a mega trend of value concentrating in AI (and all the companies that touch/integrate it). Makes a ton of sense that insurance premiums will flow that direction as well.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#8> We’re navigating a tightrope as Superintelligence nears. If the West slows down unilaterally, China could dominate the 21st century. I never understood this argument as a non-USian: I'd prefer to be under the Chinese boot rather than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI and it is certainly no reason to try to do everything we possibly can to try and summon a machine god
> I'd rather be under the Chinese boot than having all of humanity under the boot of an AI That is not the options being offered. The options are under the boot of a Western AI or a Chinese AI. Maybe you'd prefer the Chinese AI boot to the Western AI boot? > certainly no reason to try to increase the chance of summoning a machine god The argument is that this is inevitable. If it's possible to make AGI someone will e…
If you financially penalize AI researchers, either with a large lump sum or in a way which scales with their expected future earnings, take you pick, and pay the proceeds to the people who put together the very cases which lead to the fines being levied, you can very effectively freeze AGI development.
If you don't think you can organize international cooperation around this you can simply put such people on some equivalent of an FBI type Most Wanted list and pay anyone who comes forward with information and maybe gets them within your borders as well. If a government chooses to wave its dick around like this it could easily cause other nations to copy the same law, this instilling a new global Nash equilibrium where this kind of scientific frontier research is verboten.
There's nothing inevitable at all about that. I hesitate to even call such a system extreme, because we already employ systems like this to intercept e g. high level financial conspiracies via things like the False Claims Act.
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#9Is there any indication whatsoever that there's even a glimpse of artificial intelligence out there?
So far, I have seen language models that, quite impressively, translate between different languages, including programming languages and natural language specs. Yes, these models use a wast (compressed) knowledge from pretty much all of the internet.
There are also chain of thought models, yes, but what kind of actual intelligence can they achieve? Can they formulate novel algorithms? Can they formulate new physics hypotheses? Can they write a novel work of fiction?
Or aren't they actually limited by the confines of what we as a species already know?
Re: Underwriting Superintelligence
#10For this to work, large class actions are needed. If companies are liable for large judgements, companies will insure against them. If not, companies will not try to avoid harms for which they need not pay.