Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025

Post by NunoSempere » Mon, Jun 02, 2025, 4:48 PM UTC

Post by linearithmic » Mon, Jun 02, 2025, 4:53 PM UTC

NunoSempere wrote: post #2

This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.

Post by linearithmic » Mon, Jun 02, 2025, 5:08 PM UTC

NunoSempere wrote: post #5

linearithmic wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.

I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot . For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source ( https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-... ) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had th…

Post by NunoSempere » Mon, Jun 02, 2025, 5:45 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #7

linearithmic wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.

The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know. It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.