American Disruption
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American Disruption
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Re: American Disruption
#2Can anyone give a manufacturing example for the phenomena for which he uses Uber? It seems off to use a gig economy company in this article with its tariffs/manufacturing focus.
Re: American Disruption
#3Can anyone give a manufacturing example for the phenomena for which he uses Uber? It seems off to use a gig economy company in this article with its tariffs/manufacturing focus.
> the company spent its early years building its core technology and delivering a high-end experience with significantly higher prices than incumbent taxi companies. Eventually, though, the exact same technology was deployed to deliver a lower-priced experience to a significantly broader customer base; said customer base was brought on board at zero marginal cost
Ironically, this was the plan laid out for Tesla early on. Very expensive Roadster, pretty expensive Model S. Make some cash and build a reputation for how good a luxury electric car can be. Then use that cash to go down market.
Of course zero marginal cost does not apply with the Model 3, but they did dramatically lower their own cost-of-materials by the time they released the Model 3, making it profitable at scale.
> The takeaway from that Article isn’t that Uber is a model for the rebirth of American manufacturing; rather it’s that you can leverage demand to fundamentally reshape supply
Anecdotally, I know that Tesla became an aspirational brand, a dream car for many. A status brand. So the demand was there, and if you could get a "dream car" for $35K USD then why wouldn't you?
Re: American Disruption
#4Sure, but aren't we past rational debate on this point? Not only are the new trade policies irrational, it's quite possible that they're intentionally irrational as a bargaining or maneuvering tactic. We're not going to reason or argue our way out of this one.
As I commented yesterday, there's a playbook for reshoring that's being totally ignored:
First you invite industry to reshore via subsidies and preferential access to government contracts. If necessary, the government must directly invest in new firms. (They already do this in a very small way with In-Q-Tel and others, so it's not totally beyond the pale. For a time there was even a US Army VC firm.) If you talk to a Chinese factory owner or mine boss, many of them will tell you that they got their start with a >$2M direct investment from their government.
Second you gradually tighten the screws on foreign finished products, not industrial inputs like metals, plastics, ores, etc.
Third you streamline export paperwork requirements and relax things like ITAR.
Then, when that's all humming along and the factories are working, you can launch blanket tariffs to protect your nascent industries, if need be. But you must exempt necessary industrial inputs from tariffs.
It's possible that personnel problems can, to some extent, be solved with automation.
But, anyway, the playbook's being torn up and read backwards, so it's all moot. We're just going to have to ride the tiger and see what the world looks like in a few months.
Re: American Disruption
#5Sure, but aren't we past rational debate on this point? Not only are the new trade policies irrational, it's quite possible that they're intentionally irrational as a bargaining or maneuvering tactic. We're not going to reason or argue our way out of this one. As I commented yesterday, there's a playbook for reshoring that's being totally ignored: First you invite industry to reshore via subsidies and preferential ac…
That's what smart experienced people would do. But if you run the power game as an ego polishing reality show with whole world stuck in it, all logic is off the table. Sad to be part of it and absolutely powerless
Re: American Disruption
#6Sure, but aren't we past rational debate on this point? Not only are the new trade policies irrational, it's quite possible that they're intentionally irrational as a bargaining or maneuvering tactic. We're not going to reason or argue our way out of this one. As I commented yesterday, there's a playbook for reshoring that's being totally ignored: First you invite industry to reshore via subsidies and preferential ac…
Hopefully we're never past rational debate.
I mean, the people making decisions might be well past rational, but hopefully there's always a contingent of people putting deep, rational thought into what might be the best plan to utilize going forward. And hopefully good ideas keep spreading and somehow find their way back to the top. Before it's too late.
Re: American Disruption
#7Sure, but aren't we past rational debate on this point? Not only are the new trade policies irrational, it's quite possible that they're intentionally irrational as a bargaining or maneuvering tactic. We're not going to reason or argue our way out of this one. As I commented yesterday, there's a playbook for reshoring that's being totally ignored: First you invite industry to reshore via subsidies and preferential ac…
I don’t think this playbook works for complex products. Before every component needed for an iPhone is locally manufactured, the overseas competitor manufacturers of those components would be many generations further. You’d be competing with the whole world.
Re: American Disruption
#8Sure, but aren't we past rational debate on this point? Not only are the new trade policies irrational, it's quite possible that they're intentionally irrational as a bargaining or maneuvering tactic. We're not going to reason or argue our way out of this one. As I commented yesterday, there's a playbook for reshoring that's being totally ignored: First you invite industry to reshore via subsidies and preferential ac…
Preferences are independent of rationality, surely?
If a guy with a finite lifespan has a preference for autarky, expansionist military invasions, racial hierarchies and a secret police regardless of the consequences and then rationally pursues those preferences in ways that are likely to bring them about before his death of old age, the guy doesn't qualify for the category "delusional" and instead fits into one of the moral categories.
Re: American Disruption
#9[deleted]
Re: American Disruption
#10> There is one other very important takeaway from disruption: companies that go up-market find it impossible to go back down, and I think this too applies to countries.
There's a lot of talking past each other here. This observation, framed a bit differently, is precisely the argument for radical disruptive change. If there's a structural ratchet mechanism, where outsourcing a particular kind of manufacturing work means the US can never do it effectively again, doesn't every tick of the ratchet pose significant risks?