China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
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Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#2This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#3This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
Cool well I hope the US doesn't piss off all their other trading partners so they can find affordable alternatives ah oops
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#4How old is too old to learn a completely new and very different language?
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#5This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
no guarantees that china would limit those when at war, same as russia and ukraine kept trading oil.
theres no guarantees that the US would get involved with china invading taiwan, either. again, look at ukraine. sales and donations of old materiel only
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#6This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
We already know where the bottlenecks are[0] -- it's in production of anti-ship missiles and then ships.
The lead-time in producing missiles is measured in months and years and war games predict that the supply of most of them will be depleted in an initial engagement with China over Taiwan that sees Japan/Taiwan/US win but lose many ships.
After it's anybody's guess but China has 260x the naval production capacity of America so they'll be able to come back faster than the US can.
[0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargamin...
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#7This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
We already know where the bottlenecks are[0] -- it's in production of anti-ship missiles and then ships. The lead-time in producing missiles is measured in months and years and war games predict that the supply of most of them will be depleted in an initial engagement with China over Taiwan that sees Japan/Taiwan/US win but lose many ships. After it's anybody's guess but China has 260x the naval production capacity o…
Does it account for commandeering spacex and corresponding space armament? Naval projection vs orbital projection seems like a good thing to measure.
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
We already know where the bottlenecks are[0] -- it's in production of anti-ship missiles and then ships. The lead-time in producing missiles is measured in months and years and war games predict that the supply of most of them will be depleted in an initial engagement with China over Taiwan that sees Japan/Taiwan/US win but lose many ships. After it's anybody's guess but China has 260x the naval production capacity o…
Does it account for commandeering spacex and corresponding space armament? Naval projection vs orbital projection seems like a good thing to measure.
As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500.
If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 will curdle your blood as you'll see that they anticipate to lose dozens of ships including two(!) aircraft carriers. Page 11 shows hundreds of losses of various aircraft.
SpaceX will not save those lives and they will not be able to replace the equipment in time for a second engagement with China.
Take a look at a previous comment that I wrote about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42391816
[0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites...
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does it account for commandeering spacex and corresponding space armament? Naval projection vs orbital projection seems like a good thing to measure.
As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500. If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 wi…
I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”
Re: China just turned off us supplies of minerals critical for defense and cleantech
#10This is actually a good thing (not that anyone responsible had the faintest idea what would happen). When they invade Taiwan we’ll have this sort of thing going on so we’ll need to know where our military supply chain bonks.
Cool well I hope the US doesn't piss off all their other trading partners so they can find affordable alternatives ah oops
Just trust the "art of the deal".
The money will flow in any second now.