Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
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Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#2This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse.
If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth.
If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about 10-20% chance of AI leading to human extinction in 30 years. Or read about Sam Altman building his bunker in New Zealand while espousing AI utopia.
If this doesn't give you shivers, enjoy your blissful ignorance.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#3> "We've recognized that we've reached the point as a technological civilization where the idea, there's huge abundance and huge economic value, but the idea that the way to distribute that value is for humans to produce economic labor, and this is where they feel their sense of self worth," he added. "Once that idea gets invalidated, we're all going to have to sit down and figure it out."
I suspect we'll just let those without the means to guarantee their well-being just die off then.
On the upside probably good for the environment & mitigating against climate change though.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#4You can tell when the AI companies need funding, because they start to frame themselves in the most terrifying terms possible. OpenAI did this to perfection and it made them rich.
When you can't sell with the capabilities you have, and promising anything amazing would be a lie, just intimate that you're BASICALLY building Skynet and wait for the love.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#5This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…
>raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years
That is really not true anymore unless there will be a new technology that can do much better than silicon electronics. Doesn't mean that were safe, but it's not that clear.
Edit: to expand, a single transistor is made of a pretty pedestrian number of atoms these days. The gate pitch of TSMC "3 nm" is about 40 nm (not all of which is transistor) and silicon atoms are about 0.2 nm apart. So you have, let's say, 30^3 / 0.2^3 ~= 3 million atoms in a transistor. There is no room for another 10^6 improvement because a transistor with just a few atoms probably wouldn't work, the thermal noise would dominate it. Paraphrasing the famous Feynman quote, there isn't much room at the botton anymore, now.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#6> "We've recognized that we've reached the point as a technological civilization where the idea, there's huge abundance and huge economic value, but the idea that the way to distribute that value is for humans to produce economic labor, and this is where they feel their sense of self worth," he added. "Once that idea gets invalidated, we're all going to have to sit down and figure it out." I suspect we'll just let th…
> let those without the means to guarantee their well-being just die off then
History has some entertaining responses to previous holders of such viewpoints.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#7This kind of hype is nutso. Look I use LLMs every day all day but they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. They cannot and will never be able to construct anything new outside of their training data. They’ll always need humans in the loop to come up with new interesting things and those humans will be the ones doing most of the actual work.
The people that push this stuff are crazy on their own fumes.
It sounds so transparently full of hype I really don’t know how people take them seriously.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#8This kind of hype is nutso. Look I use LLMs every day all day but they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. They cannot and will never be able to construct anything new outside of their training data. They’ll always need humans in the loop to come up with new interesting things and those humans will be the ones doing most of the…
I'm with you but I'm also thinking about how I didn't even see the capability we have no being as close as it was 10 years ago. In 2015 I would have guessed 2030 or beyond.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#9> "We've recognized that we've reached the point as a technological civilization where the idea, there's huge abundance and huge economic value, but the idea that the way to distribute that value is for humans to produce economic labor, and this is where they feel their sense of self worth," he added. "Once that idea gets invalidated, we're all going to have to sit down and figure it out." I suspect we'll just let th…
Social nets are a thing.
Not particularly worried about anyone dying off. At least in mid to rich countries.
Bigger concern in those to me is what sort of existence it’ll be. State keeps you alive sure but I’d like to do a bit more than that
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#10This is how the scam works. Show off the potential of AI with the excuse that you just need tons of GPUs that cost billions to train to get to the so-called “AGI” whilst promising “efficiency” to VCs but paint an AI utopia to end users whilst you build your bunker for the incoming societal collapse.
No AI company has any sensible answer to what happens when the gradual displacement of knowledge workers accelerates and what exactly these “new jobs” are.
Without them specifying, then the goal of “AGI” was always to raise more money until they get there with the hard deadline of 2030. That is Anthropic’s plan and especially OpenAI’s plan.
Otherwise, why do you think OpenAI is going to release an agentic AI called “Operator” and who do you think they are trying to displace? Why are they (Sam, Zuck, etc) building their bunkers ahead of 2030?
I’m giving you 5 years ahead of their hard deadline of this displacement to prepare for their plan. [0]