Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
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Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#2I thought I remembered this model being released many months ago? Or is this a new update to the model?
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#3I thought I remembered this model being released many months ago? Or is this a new update to the model?
New model. Much better than the last one.
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#46 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42319062
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#5Obviously this team knows way more about this donain than me but I have to ask, wouldnt this only be able to predict weather which is in line with past weather patterns/indicators? I can imagine a weather analyst might be able to see "between the data" and recognise when some anomaly might be brewing, but an AI model would not
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#6Obviously this team knows way more about this donain than me but I have to ask, wouldnt this only be able to predict weather which is in line with past weather patterns/indicators? I can imagine a weather analyst might be able to see "between the data" and recognise when some anomaly might be brewing, but an AI model would not
Yup. There's fundamentally no way to automatically verify predictive accuracy, the assumptions in ML papers about such accuracy is (the almost always false presumption) that there are no distributional shifts in the data generating process.
Here, since weather certainly changes its fundamental patterns over time, there is no way of reliably predicting out-sample performance.
It's highly likely that in 1-2 years time we'd take all physics-based predictions and all predictions of current AI models, and find the AI model accuracy drops off a cliff when faced with a real out-sample.
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#7This is great from a practical standpoint (being able to predict weather), but does it actually improve our understanding of the weather, or WHY those predictions are better?
That is my issue with some of these AI advances. With these, we won't have actually gotten better at understanding the weather patterns, since it's all just a bunch of weights which nobody really understands.
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#8This is great from a practical standpoint (being able to predict weather), but does it actually improve our understanding of the weather, or WHY those predictions are better? That is my issue with some of these AI advances. With these, we won't have actually gotten better at understanding the weather patterns, since it's all just a bunch of weights which nobody really understands.
But that's the point of a weather forecast. We don't do them for the science. (I'm not arguing against weather research.)
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#9This is great from a practical standpoint (being able to predict weather), but does it actually improve our understanding of the weather, or WHY those predictions are better? That is my issue with some of these AI advances. With these, we won't have actually gotten better at understanding the weather patterns, since it's all just a bunch of weights which nobody really understands.
do you want a causal weather model or one that can predict the weather well?
Re: Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast
#10This is great from a practical standpoint (being able to predict weather), but does it actually improve our understanding of the weather, or WHY those predictions are better? That is my issue with some of these AI advances. With these, we won't have actually gotten better at understanding the weather patterns, since it's all just a bunch of weights which nobody really understands.
Is that similar to being uncomfortable with quantum mechanics and the shut-up-and-calculate advice?