When did estimates turn into deadlines?
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When did estimates turn into deadlines?
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Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#2I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.
Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"
"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.
A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#3I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered. Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?" "Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work. A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.
> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four?
> Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#4Sometime around 1956 at a guess.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#5I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered. Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?" "Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work. A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.
> the first number you put out will be remembered
This is called anchoring effect, a psychological bias.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#6Multiply your original estimate by 3, works most of the time
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#7> When did estimates turn into deadlines?
In my personal experience: the first time I gave what could be construed as an official estimate.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#8When I give an estimate, I always reiterate that it's just an estimate that is based on limited and incomplete information, and that the real number can be more or less. If they don't like it, they're free to put someone else on the project.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#9I've gone through times when management would treat estimates as deadlines, and were deaf to any sort of reason about why it could be otherwise, like the usual thing of them changing the specification repeatedly.
So when those times have occurred I've (we've more accurately) adopted what I refer to the "deer in the headlights" response to just about anything non-trivial. "Hoo boy, that could be doozy. I think someone on the team needs to take an hour or so and figure out what this is really going to take." Then you'll get asked to "ballpark it" because that's what managers do, and they get a number that makes them rise up in their chair, and yes, that is the number they remember. And then you do your hour of due diligence, and try your best not to actually give any other number than the ballpark at any time, and then you get it done "ahead of time" and look good.
Now, I've had good managers who totally didn't need this strategy, and I loved 'em to death. But for the other numbnuts who can't be bothered to learn their career skills, they get the whites of my eyes.
Also, just made meetings a lot more fun.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#10In 1505 Michelangelo gave an estimate of five years to finish the tomb for Pope Julius II.
Due to small side projects like the painting of the Sistine Chapel ceiling it took around 40.
Failure to meet the deadline informed by the estimate meant that the scale of the project was massively reduced because: Pope Julius II had died prior to completion, there were changes requested by the customer (both Julius and his heirs), supply chain issues, contract renegotiations, labor disputes, shortages of qualified workers, and money running out due to the long duration of the project.
So, since 1505 at least?
The funny thing is that the pope isn't even interred there.