Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
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Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#2A guess why Goldwater was reviled? Voluntary Social Security would be DOA. It doesn't make fiscal sense for the upper class to pay social security, so they wouldn't. That leaves the lower class' taxes going to pay for it--somehow I don't think there's enough there.
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Yes, Social Security as is sucks.
No, we shouldn't kick it while it's down.
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#3Social Security isn't a Ponzi scheme because it would work perfectly well if the population remained stable over time, or shrank. And it would even be alright if it grew slowly and linearly.
What really throws a wrench in the cogs is when the generation retiring is much larger than the ones still working, especially the one or two before it. This is why the Baby Boomers leaving the work force is so problematic.
The good news (in a sick sort of way) is that our diet and health care are so bad that we save a little due to lifespans actually shrinking. People mistakenly attribute the problem to longer lifespans, but the expectancy of a working-age adult (the only group that matters for the purposes of entitlements) has barely budged since before Social Security was invented, and is now quite possibly shrinking. Lifespan from birth (as it is typically expressed) has risen almost entirely due to lower infant mortality.
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#4Is that really what Hacker News wants to be? A political forum? If so, I'll encourage the folks at Media Matters, Center for American Progress, and Campaign for America's Future to start posting here.
It's bad enough that Conservative political groups are hijacking a startup news aggregator. It's worse that the ideas they're pushing don't work.
Conservatism--the political philosophy promoted by AEI, Hoover, Heritage et al--is the flip side of Communism. With Communism, the purpose of people is to serve The State. In Conservatism, the purpose of people is to serve The Market. Thus, popular New Deal programs such as Social Security are anathema to them.
Both Communism and Conservatism work badly, producing similar effects. Our unregulated Conservative markets have crashed and burned just as badly as the Russians' hyper-regulated Communist markets did. States and countries run on Conservative principles are typically backward and stagnant:
--Mississippi and Alabama have Conservative state governments, and have practically no startup activity. Massachusetts and New York are not Conservative, which makes them capable of spawning MIT and Silicon Alley.
--Conservatives say that the keys to a strong economy is low taxes on rich people and unregulated markets. We've had them for the past decade, just as we did in the 1920s, and just as it did in the 1920s, our economy has melted down. What happened when we had sky-high taxes on rich people, and highly regulated markets? We got the U.S. economic boom of the 40s, 50s, and 60s, and built the world's biggest middle class.
The fact that their political philosophy has produced poor results doesn't give the folks at AEI/Hoover/Heritage pause, however. Just like the old Communists, these Conservatives are now complaining that "Conservatism DOES work! It's just never been tried!" Just as with Communism, Conservatism never fails, it is only failed.
As for the ideas of Milton Friedman that these Hacker News Hijackers are pushing, we may want to read what a Nobel Prize-winning economist has to say about them:
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#5"In 1964, Barry Goldwater was much reviled for suggesting that participation in Social Security be voluntary. I thought it was a good idea then. I still think so." A guess why Goldwater was reviled? Voluntary Social Security would be DOA. It doesn't make fiscal sense for the upper class to pay social security, so they wouldn't. That leaves the lower class' taxes going to pay for it--somehow I don't think there's enou…
And I think you validate his point if you claim that social security is only solvent because it redistributes money from the rich to the poor. If the system is unsustainable without giving some people a lower return to subsidize other investors (i.e. soaking the rich to pay off the electorate), it's a ponzi scheme.
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#6"In 1964, Barry Goldwater was much reviled for suggesting that participation in Social Security be voluntary. I thought it was a good idea then. I still think so." A guess why Goldwater was reviled? Voluntary Social Security would be DOA. It doesn't make fiscal sense for the upper class to pay social security, so they wouldn't. That leaves the lower class' taxes going to pay for it--somehow I don't think there's enou…
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#7It's not really a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme pays interest to attract investors so it needs significantly more customers with each iteration. Madoff's infamous one paid out 12% annually, so it needed to grow by 12% each year just to achieve stasis (or it would have if cash outs equaled profits anyway, some years it was probably more or less). Social Security isn't a Ponzi scheme because it would work perfectly well…
"Taxes paid by today’s workers are used to pay today’s retirees. If money is left over, it finances other government spending—though, to maintain the insurance fiction, paper entries are created in a “trust fund” that is simultaneously an asset and a liability of the government. When the benefits that are due exceed the proceeds from payroll taxes, as they will in the not very distant future, the difference will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing, creating money, or reducing other government spending."
Basically politicians (of both parties) raid the Social Security fund and just leave IOU notes behind to fund their pork projects. If the money was untouchable and only used for Social Security, the problems we'd see with just population changes wouldn't be nearly as bad... hence (I could be wrong but I feel) this is one of the core arguments that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#8Seems like there's an awful lot of polemical posts on Hacker News lately from Conservative political organizations. Guess they figured out that here they could promote their agenda for free. Is that really what Hacker News wants to be? A political forum? If so, I'll encourage the folks at Media Matters, Center for American Progress, and Campaign for America's Future to start posting here. It's bad enough that Conserv…
I think it's really funny that when you see some viewpoints with which you disagree, it is because some big, anonymous agglomeration ("Conservatives!") must be abusing their freedom of speech by saying things with which many HN readers agree (and your solution -- telling an actual big, anonymous agglomeration to push their viewpoints here -- just seems to exacerbate the problem). A few other points:
In Conservatism, the purpose of people is to serve The Market.
What does it mean to 'serve' the market? The market is an abstraction -- you can't make 'it' better or worse-off, though you can do that to participants.
Our unregulated Conservative markets
You're referring to how the unregulated hedge funds produced much worse returns than the highly-regulated commercial- and investment-banking industries -- and how the only safe spot in the current financial turmoil is the highly-regulated, government-created, government-subsidized mortgage industry, right? Right?
Mississippi and Alabama have Conservative state governments, and have practically no startup activity. Massachusetts and New York are not Conservative, which makes them capable of spawning MIT and Silicon Alley.
Has it not occurred to you that you have the cause and effect wrong, here? New York and California can have more abusive governments because even if you pay 50% of your marginal income in taxes, you're still better off starting a startup in CA than in Mississippi, or trading derivatives in New York rather than Alabama.
What happened when we had sky-high taxes on rich people, and highly regulated markets?
Some day, you will be introduced to the term 'loophole'. You will wonder why the three-martini lunch and the company car used to be so common, and are now so rare. You will run the numbers on the Reagan tax cuts and find that the reduction in nominal rates would imply gigantic cuts in total income received, which is not what happened -- and then you'll realize that, in general, tax cuts are accompanied by loophole-closing, and tax increases are accompanied by loophole creation. That's just how things work.
Thank you for linking to Paul Krugman, well-known as the first person to be awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize for his political rants in a popular newspaper, rather than his academic papers. I haven't actually read what the prize committee said about him, but everyone I've met who agrees with Krugman's polemics seems to see the prize as new evidence in their favor, so I am assuming that this is what the award was for. Right?
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#9Seems like there's an awful lot of polemical posts on Hacker News lately from Conservative political organizations. Guess they figured out that here they could promote their agenda for free. Is that really what Hacker News wants to be? A political forum? If so, I'll encourage the folks at Media Matters, Center for American Progress, and Campaign for America's Future to start posting here. It's bad enough that Conserv…
I just feel that hacker news is a forum for posting a wide range of ideas. If you don't agree with an article you can do one of two things:
1) post a logical counter argument like some people already have.
2) ignore it.
I really hate posts that really have nothing to do with the general ideas that articles convey. it tends to become useless noise.
This isn't about conservatism vs liberalism. This is about US Social Security. Please stick with the subject.
Re: Social Security: The Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth (By Milton Friedman)
#10Seems like there's an awful lot of polemical posts on Hacker News lately from Conservative political organizations. Guess they figured out that here they could promote their agenda for free. Is that really what Hacker News wants to be? A political forum? If so, I'll encourage the folks at Media Matters, Center for American Progress, and Campaign for America's Future to start posting here. It's bad enough that Conserv…
So you've got that. But past that, it's hard to find intelligent discussion on economics, government, and society, and a bit coming into HN is healthy for the discussion.
What I'm impressed about is that we get practically no political current events here - and that's pretty cool. Most of the ideas we talk about in terms of economics, society, and government are pretty broad, intellectual strokes instead of inflamed stuff. And for the record, I'm all up for talking about market failure, monopolozation, and unfair initial distribution of resources. And we can have some good discussion.
Edit: This was originally a reply to someone who said HN was being invaded by Conservative lobbyists getting free publicity or some such. byrneseyeview replied to the same guy quoting some of it before he deleted it if you're curious as to the gist of it.