Show HN: The Probability Times

In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as I can (e.g. voting results per state). See source code here [2].

The whole process is explained in more depth in my blog post: https://nerology.substack.com/p/how-i-made-the-probability-t...

[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[2] https://gitlab.com/NeroVanbiervliet/the-probability-times/-/...

Show HN: The Probability Times
theprobabilitytimes.com

Hm, maybe the prompt is too tightly constrained.

There is historical precedent for Donald Trump refusing to concede a presidential race, as seen in the 2020 election when he did not formally concede to Joe Biden and instead launched numerous legal challenges, citing unsubstantiated claims of election fraud.

But I concede that no such outcome is represented in the FiveThirtyEight dataset.

Also, Tuesday is election Day, why would a paper with that date already have the results; it won't. In 2020 the final count result came several days after the election day, although by that point Biden had enough EC votes.

A more interesting "predict the future" site would be one that can see the mood of the angry side of the electorate (e.g. based on social media) and predict terroristic acts big and small.

As an article I read a while ago and happen to agree with, the country is already in the next civil war, a lot of people are just in denial. One can deem it a cold civil war.