Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
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Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
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Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#2[dead]
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#3> There is a great conflict between two of the most pressing problems of our time: poverty and climate change.
This wasn't true in 2021 and has been getting less true over time.
Not one mention of Solar or Wind in the whole article.
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#4> There is a great conflict between two of the most pressing problems of our time: poverty and climate change. This wasn't true in 2021 and has been getting less true over time. Not one mention of Solar or Wind in the whole article.
I agree that it's stupid not to take the game-changer of solar and wind (and batteries) into account.
Even though I believe that nuclear no longer has a role in energy (fuel sources, disposal, concentration of risk into few small units), the statement is still correct and it has another dimension:
There is a conflict between poverty, climate change, gravity of climate change harms and the speed at which we can reduce climate change impacts.
The problem is that there is a shrinking window to limit harm, and the harms will disproportionally affect poor nations which at the same time lack resources to mitigate. I'd definitely call that a gordian knot.
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#5> There is a great conflict between two of the most pressing problems of our time: poverty and climate change. This wasn't true in 2021 and has been getting less true over time. Not one mention of Solar or Wind in the whole article.
I agree that it's stupid not to take the game-changer of solar and wind (and batteries) into account. Even though I believe that nuclear no longer has a role in energy (fuel sources, disposal, concentration of risk into few small units), the statement is still correct and it has another dimension: There is a conflict between poverty, climate change, gravity of climate change harms and the speed at which we can reduce…
A guardian or a gordian knot [0]?
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#6> There is a great conflict between two of the most pressing problems of our time: poverty and climate change. This wasn't true in 2021 and has been getting less true over time. Not one mention of Solar or Wind in the whole article.
? Those are very much two of the world's most pressing problems, both accelerating currently. Though I'd phrase the 'poverty' one as 'wealth inequality' instead as whilst people are getting poorer their access to resources has been scaling well enough to keep them above the poverty line. That may not remain true for much longer though.
And the article is about nuclear energy and the premise of it being a flop and why that might be, based on a book about the topic. I don't think it has to mention solar and wind. Though I can see, as competing energy sources, why it would be useful to look at their impact on political momentum for nuclear, or how they reduce economic demand for the extra energy nuclear can supply.
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#7too expensive and never built on time, only countries where it's cheap are dictatorships where you can hide problems
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#8> There is a great conflict between two of the most pressing problems of our time: poverty and climate change. This wasn't true in 2021 and has been getting less true over time. Not one mention of Solar or Wind in the whole article.
? Those are very much two of the world's most pressing problems, both accelerating currently. Though I'd phrase the 'poverty' one as 'wealth inequality' instead as whilst people are getting poorer their access to resources has been scaling well enough to keep them above the poverty line. That may not remain true for much longer though. And the article is about nuclear energy and the premise of it being a flop and why…
> whilst people are getting poorer their access to resources has been scaling well enough to keep them above the poverty line
Defining poverty as "wealth relative to the richest person on earth" or whatever you're doing here is unproductive crab-bucket envy, not a useful definition. If you're talking about wealth, all that matters is if the baseline is going up. If you're talking about status, be honest and say that explicitly instead of dressing it up as a wealth issue.
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#9The conclusions of the article is very good. I mostly agree with them. But there are two major flaws in the article:
1. “we need more like 25 TW”. That seems too high to me. Is that based on a direct conversion of the primary energy consumption today? The alternatives solutions needed for decarbonisation is generally much more energy efficient than the fossil fuel based solutions we use today. In addition, the energy used per capita to live a European lifestyle is decreasing year over year. And finally, the energy use will drop dramatically as we shift from primarily making stuff out of mined virgin materials to using recycled materials. For instance, commercial EV battery recycling is ramping up rapidly already today. Making virgin concrete is energy and CO2 intensive but that might not be a viable option for the long term anyway, as it requires sand that we’re also running out of. There’s already huge pressure to reduce the use of concrete.
It should also be said that 25TW or more of nuclear thermal power will contribute to thermal forcing of the planet that we probably can’t afford when the planet is already on the precipice of dangerous climate tipping points. The global warming effect of the thermal power plants we have today is already on the same order of magnitude as greenhouse gas emissions from airplanes.
2. I miss a discussion about the labour costs when it comes to nuclear. I think one of the reasons it was cheap to build in the past was access to cheap labour in the countries building the nuclear power plants. Changing demographics is an irreversible trend that will keep these labour costs high. Solar lets you outsource much of the labour costs of the production of the panels, and that production will probably end up being fully automated and then on-shored in the end anyway.
Re: Why has nuclear power been a flop? (2021)
#10I don't really think he understands why the safety paradigm is the way it is.
The problem is fear. Fear generated by individual incidents that have terrible local harmful effects. And the (perhaps inaccurate) perception that plants may still have issues. Plus the fairly unsolved waste storage problem.
Fukushima, 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl were existential for the nuclear industry. Like it or lump it, they made nuclear feel less safe.
When will we know that the new nuclear power plants are safe enough? Not for a decade or more.
Pretending that the industry isn't taking a rationale line based on the same tired stats about radiation is pointless. Humans are bad at judging risk, but your job as a power plant operator is to deal with the risk people perceive as well as the risk that actually exists.
(And the fact he links to LessWrong which is a site that overemphasises rational thinking to the extent it ignores the human condition says a lot to me).