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Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

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Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#4
A commendable effort to preserve history.

Chapter VI has an irritating equation that claims the fourth root of one-hundredth equals one-sixth. It should be obvious even without the help of any computing aid that this is wrong. Was it a typo or what else may have led to that mistake?

Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#5
post #4

A commendable effort to preserve history. Chapter VI has an irritating equation that claims the fourth root of one-hundredth equals one-sixth. It should be obvious even without the help of any computing aid that this is wrong. Was it a typo or what else may have led to that mistake?

The denominator of that fraction is meant to be interpreted as what we would write today as 3.2, not 3x2, and indeed fourth root 100 = about 3.16. The interpunct (the mid-line dot you're interpreting as multiplication) was historically a common way of marking what we now mark with a . character.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_separator#English-spea...

Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#6
It's really interesting how he constructs a self-consistent narrative with half true and half false premises.

For example, he totally whiffs on the geology due to bad starting premises. At this time, the Earth was believed to be relatively young (on the order of millions of years) because simple calculations would show that even a very high initial temperature would have cooled to at most the surface temperature within that time. What they missed was the internal heat budget of the planet, which we now know is driven by radioactivity (which, in 1907, had just been discovered - the Curies had shared a Nobel for it in 1903).

Wallace was right that this is a very small contributor to Earth's surface temperature, but the false assumption that the planet had dramatically cooled was behind the idea that continental shapes and faulting were due to the movement of a cooling and thus contracting planet. Plate tectonics was a few years away from even being proposed as a serious theory at this point, and it wouldn't gain much traction for another fifty years after that. But it turns out that tectonics is responsible for a lot of the geographic differences between the three bodies under discussion here. Earth has plate tectonics today, Mars probably did early in its history but does not today, and the Moon never did.

Yet despite being totally wrong about this, Wallace is correct (as best we currently understand it) that the Martian valleys are indeed fault lines. He comes around to it from a totally wrong direction: that Mars, being smaller than the Earth, began with less heat, and that its interior solidified first, causing its surface to contract onto that rigid surface and crack in a way Earth's did not.

There's a lesson here in the ability to form consistent, empirical, wrong theories given even slightly wrong inputs.

Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#7

It's really interesting how he constructs a self-consistent narrative with half true and half false premises. For example, he totally whiffs on the geology due to bad starting premises. At this time, the Earth was believed to be relatively young (on the order of millions of years) because simple calculations would show that even a very high initial temperature would have cooled to at most the surface temperature with…

> There's a lesson here in the ability to form consistent, empirical, wrong theories given even slightly wrong inputs.

Is this really a lesson? Every single theory evolved this way, starting with an almost certainly naive hypothesis, then with incomplete evidence leading to bad conclusions, then as better data came in, adjustments to the theory until we had something that fit the evidence to a high degree (though it's almost always possible further adjustments are necessary even when it looks like we've found the perfect theory: e.g. Newton physics VS relativity).

I think you would be hard pressed to find any theory that did NOT evolve in this exact manner.

Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#9

It's really interesting how he constructs a self-consistent narrative with half true and half false premises. For example, he totally whiffs on the geology due to bad starting premises. At this time, the Earth was believed to be relatively young (on the order of millions of years) because simple calculations would show that even a very high initial temperature would have cooled to at most the surface temperature with…

"For every complex problem, there's a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong." H.L. Mencken

Re: Is Mars Habitable? (1907)

#10

It's really interesting how he constructs a self-consistent narrative with half true and half false premises. For example, he totally whiffs on the geology due to bad starting premises. At this time, the Earth was believed to be relatively young (on the order of millions of years) because simple calculations would show that even a very high initial temperature would have cooled to at most the surface temperature with…

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