Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
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Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
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Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#2Was expecting a little more analysis of or at least information about the content of the paper itself.
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#3Asked the smartest person I know and got a prediction of AGI in 1 to 2 centuries.
This is basically a self-assessed IQ test.
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#4It starts with the sentence
"You can see the future first in San Francisco"
and while the following paragraphs make a good, positive upbeat point, reading it out of context I cannot help thinking about homeless people in the streets and a pretty dark and dystopian future.
It's interesting how a place can be so radically different things at the same time.
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#5Was expecting a little more analysis of or at least information about the content of the paper itself.
These posts by Zvi might be helpful (as in condensing the information, no analysis though):
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/quotes-from-leopold-...
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2024/06/10/on-dwarkshs-podcast-...
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#6How is this article worthy of the front page of HN? It must be simply the click-bait nature of the title as there is nothing of substance beyond that.
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#7Asked the smartest person I know and got a prediction of AGI in 1 to 2 centuries. This is basically a self-assessed IQ test.
No one can predict what innovations will come. So a more accurate answer would be "I don't know, but not likely soon". But it should be pretty clear by now that the current driver of AGI talk (LLMs, possibly by extension, NNs) is not going to get us there. It might be a component of some future AGI, but not the basis
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#8Asked the smartest person I know and got a prediction of AGI in 1 to 2 centuries. This is basically a self-assessed IQ test.
Did you make sure you agreed on what was meant by "AGI"?
I ask because ever since InstructGPT I've been noticing that people not only don't agree on any letter of that initialism, but also sometimes mean by it something not present in any letter.
So for me, even InstructGPT counts as a general purpose AI; for OpenAI, it's not what they mean by AGI (they require it to be economically significant); and it definitely isn't superhuman (which some people need, I'd call that ASI not merely AGI); and we still can't agree on what consciousness is let alone what it would take for an AI to have it, but some people include that in their definition of AGI and I never have.
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#9Asked the smartest person I know and got a prediction of AGI in 1 to 2 centuries. This is basically a self-assessed IQ test.
No one can predict what innovations will come. So a more accurate answer would be "I don't know, but not likely soon". But it should be pretty clear by now that the current driver of AGI talk (LLMs, possibly by extension, NNs) is not going to get us there. It might be a component of some future AGI, but not the basis
Isn't Leonardo DaVinci famous for doing just that?
Re: Is Aschenbrenner's 165 page paper on AI the naivety of a 25 year old?
#10Few times seen a blog post touching on so many subjects, without actually saying anything. Is there an argument, point, story, poem, news, analysis or something being made here?