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Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

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Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#1

Post by Heidaradar »

With reports and blogposts [0][1] talking about how open ai has begun training their next flagship model, when do you expect the next model to be launched?

Furthermore, what do you think they're going to do to make it as "safe" as possible. It's funny OpenAI didn't release GPT-2 immediately to the public because of safety worries, but has now been releasing models without the same care for safety and I imagine this will continue with GPT-5

[0] https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-training-gpt-4s-successor-here-are-3-big-upgrades-to-expect-from-gpt-5/ [1] https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#3

Post by randomtoast »

The following is all guess work:

Since the start of their partnership in 2019, OpenAI has primarily utilized Microsoft's Azure data centers for training its models. In 2023, Microsoft acquired approximately 150,000 H100 GPUs. [1]

The initial version of GPT-4 ran on a cluster of A100 GPUs. It is likely that GPT-5 will run on the newly acquired H100 GPUs, and it is plausible that GPT-4 Turbo and GPT-4o also utilize this infrastructure. The inference speed of GPT-5 should not be significantly slower than that of GPT-4 to ensure it remains practical for most applications.

Assuming the H100 is 4.6 times faster for inference than the A100 [2], this gives us a lower bound for performance expectations. I anticipate GPT-5 to be at least five times larger in terms of model parameters. Given that both A100 and H100 have a maximum capacity of 80GB, it is unlikely we will see a single gigantic model. Instead, we can expect an increase in the number of experts. If GPT-4 operates as a mixture of experts with 8x220 billion parameters, then GPT-5 might scale up to something like 40x220 billion parameters. However, the exact release date, safety measures, and benchmark performance of GPT-5 remain uncertain.

[1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidia-ai-and-hpc...

[2]: https://nvidia.github.io/TensorRT-LLM/blogs/H100vsA100.html

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#4

Post by diego_sandoval »

My question is: will it be multimodal?

From a product perspective, going back to unimodality after trying GPT-4o would be awkward, so there's reasons for them to go full multimodal, but I'm not fully educated about the trade-off from a technical perspective.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#6

Post by astromaniak »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #2

This one is easy, within a year, as safe as GPT-4 and it will be an incremental advance over 4. Most people will use it and not see much difference over GPT-4.

> and not see much difference over GPT-4.

There is actually a big difference even between GPT4 and GPT4o when used for programming. The latter produces much bigger chunks of code, doesn't forget the variables names. My guess due to larger context window.

From what is available GPT5 should be more brainwashed and actually a collection of models including image, sound, may be video. Plus some algorithms like web search, data extraction, strict text formatting. OAI will likely use GPT4 to produce some high quality training data. This way they can make GPT5 'smarter', better at logic and problem solving.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#7

Post by iLoveOncall »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #2

This one is easy, within a year, as safe as GPT-4 and it will be an incremental advance over 4. Most people will use it and not see much difference over GPT-4.

Exactly that. People were having the same unrealistic expectations about GPT-4 and it turned out to be barely noticeably different from GPT-3.5 for a lot of use cases.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#8

Post by thiago_fm »

Training takes a few months, but I bet that they'll do some testing first before releasing it to the public.

I also believe that they will delay the release of GPT-5 as much as possible, the reason being that it will be underwhelming (at least in comparison to GPT3.5 hype). Possibly release close to some Google new release timeline (their main competitor).

They are the main driver of a bubble that has benefited a lot both Microsoft and NVidia and other hyperscalers, and if they release the model and display that we're at the "diminished returns" phase, this will crash a big part of the industry, not to mention NVidia.

Companies are buying H100s and investing in expensive AI talent because they believe they progress quickly, if the progress stalls for LLMs, there'll be a huge drop in sales and CAPEX in this industry.

There are still many up-and-coming projects that rely on NVidia hardware for training, like Tesla's autopilot and others, but the bulk of the investment in H100 in recent years has been mostly because of LLMs.

Also all the new AI talent will move on to do something new and hopefully we will have more discoveries and potential uses, but we're definitely peak LLMs.

(ps: just my opinion)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#9

Post by treprinum »

Does anyone know why OpenAI's temperature parameter works differently than Azure OpenAI temperature parameter? If you set temperature to 2.0, Azure starts spewing nonsense with random characters but OpenAI still keeps working "creatively". Is there any non-linear transform between them?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#10

Post by jankovicsandras »

Here's a completely made up point of view. (I haven't read the articles.)

GPT-4 is not an LLM, but a complex software system, which has LLM(s) at its core, but also other components like RAG, toxicity filter, apologizing mechanism, expert systems, etc. "GPT-4" is product name / marketing name. For OpenAI, this would be logical for performance and business reasons. This explains also how they can tune it, the apparent secrecy about the architecture, etc.

It's also logical to make small, incremental changes to this system instead of building whatever GPT-5 would mean from ground up. So I expect "GPT-5" is also just a marketing name for a slightly better black-box (for us) system and product line.

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