The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
businessinsider.com
The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
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Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#2Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#3I honestly don't remember how much I "lost" October 6–10, 2008 or February 24–28, 2020. I certainly won't remember how much I "lose" in the next crash.
What I do know is how many shares I still hold of a broad range of companies with a track record for growth today and how much they've collectively risen in value between October 5, 2008 and May 11, 2024.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#4One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened.
Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually occurs, and I am. But I wonder how strong of a correlation there is between age and people with severe beliefs along these lines.
It's infinitely worse now, of course, as with the internet and mass media these ideas are effectively viral memes that can reach and swarm the population quickly and easily.
Even worse, a lot of it is intentional and adversarial - if you wanted to destroy a country's economy, it would be an extremely cost effective strategy to simply flood the country's internet with doomer posts about their economy, about their country, get the citizens fear riddled and have them lose faith in their country. Never have to fire a single bullet.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#5One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened. Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually oc…
The "problem" with doomers is that they offer no nuance. Almost all of the issues people talk about are real issues we should be taking action on. But when assertions like "climate change is going to kill us all" are thrown around, it leaves very little room for actual change, and effectively demoralizes other people.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#6One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened. Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually oc…
> Even worse, a lot of it is intentional and adversarial - if you wanted to destroy a country's economy, it would be an extremely cost effective strategy to simply flood the country's internet with doomer posts about their economy, about their country, get the citizens fear riddled and have them lose faith in their country. Never have to fire a single bullet.
That's exactly what happened in Brazil 10 years ago and we are just now starting to recover
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#7One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened. Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually oc…
The "problem" with doomers is that they offer no nuance. Almost all of the issues people talk about are real issues we should be taking action on. But when assertions like "climate change is going to kill us all" are thrown around, it leaves very little room for actual change, and effectively demoralizes other people.
I think this goes for much internet advice.
"Your partner leaves hairs in the sink? Leave the relationship now!"
Maybe a better way to address things is to have an objective list of trouble signs, and let people make up their mind from that. Maybe being able to apply this to old problems will help.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#8I honestly don't remember how much I "lost" October 6–10, 2008 or February 24–28, 2020. I certainly won't remember how much I "lose" in the next crash. What I do know is how many shares I still hold of a broad range of companies with a track record for growth today and how much they've collectively risen in value between October 5, 2008 and May 11, 2024.
In a historically unprecedented bull market juiced by low interest rates and quantitative easing.. What’s your point, that crashes are weak sauce? Look at historic charts and find examples of crashes that precede decade plus periods without being back in black. Unless you’re old it’s almost inevitable that at some point you’ll have your cash to remember.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#9If you follow some basic rules, you don’t have to worry about economic fluctuations or crashes.
1) Save diligently.
2) Think in terms of 5 or 10 years.
3) Have sufficient cash accessible for emergencies.
4) Do not over leverage yourself such that a job loss or housing crash will immediately crush you.
5) Diversify your assets sufficiently. Don’t have all your money in your company’s stock.
Re: The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash
#10I honestly don't remember how much I "lost" October 6–10, 2008 or February 24–28, 2020. I certainly won't remember how much I "lose" in the next crash. What I do know is how many shares I still hold of a broad range of companies with a track record for growth today and how much they've collectively risen in value between October 5, 2008 and May 11, 2024.
In a historically unprecedented bull market juiced by low interest rates and quantitative easing.. What’s your point, that crashes are weak sauce? Look at historic charts and find examples of crashes that precede decade plus periods without being back in black. Unless you’re old it’s almost inevitable that at some point you’ll have your cash to remember.
I think the point OP was making that you can look at the economy over any 10 year period and it will have grown. That crashes are mere blips.