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Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

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Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

#1

Post by sureklix »

Hi HN, I'm Efe from Secondlaw AI. We are building physics-informed large AI models. Currently, we are focusing on weather modelling.

To benchmark SOTA, we had to build a forecasting infra for all available large weather models and we could not find a solid tooling to do so, so we built Skyrim. Within We are implementing more models & fine-tuning capabilities. Let us know if anything more we can add, also happy to answer any questions!

Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo
github.com

Re: Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

#6

Post by Pwnguinz »

What's the granularity of the prediction (I'm not sure if that's the correct word? I'm not a meteorologist)? Region level (100s km)? City level (a few 10s of kms)? Block level (a few kms)?

When you say it's on par with global weather models, how is "weather prediction accuracy" measured?

Cool, none-the-less!

Re: Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

#7

Post by sureklix »

JojoFatsani wrote: post #5

Are you just entirely unconcerned with being sued for trademark infringement?

OK so feels like this needs some explanation. It is in an entirely unrelated field, just like Palantir (also directly from LOTR). Not to distract the discussion, but Skyrim trademark is registered at USPTO in the field of computer game related anything.

Re: Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

#8

Post by sureklix »

Pwnguinz wrote: post #6

What's the granularity of the prediction (I'm not sure if that's the correct word? I'm not a meteorologist)? Region level (100s km)? City level (a few 10s of kms)? Block level (a few kms)? When you say it's on par with global weather models, how is "weather prediction accuracy" measured? Cool, none-the-less!

Very good question! These models are trained on ~40 years of ERA5 data –you can think of past forecasts from numerical models integrated with real observational data to have a continuous distribution of weather parameters (temperature, wind etc.) Therefore model resolution is 0.25 degrees (28km x 28km at the equator).

The way accuracy is measured is through picking targets (say temperature at 2 meters, at x,y lat & lon and forecasted 24h ago) and comparing them on RMSE and ACC (anomaly correlation co-efficient). For instance, in Google Graphcast paper they pick 1380 targets and the model out performs NWPs in 90% of them.

Re: Show HN: Skyrim – Open-source Large Weather Model (LWM) Zoo

#10

Post by m13uz »

sureklix wrote: post #8
Pwnguinz wrote: post #6

What's the granularity of the prediction (I'm not sure if that's the correct word? I'm not a meteorologist)? Region level (100s km)? City level (a few 10s of kms)? Block level (a few kms)? When you say it's on par with global weather models, how is "weather prediction accuracy" measured? Cool, none-the-less!

Very good question! These models are trained on ~40 years of ERA5 data –you can think of past forecasts from numerical models integrated with real observational data to have a continuous distribution of weather parameters (temperature, wind etc.) Therefore model resolution is 0.25 degrees (28km x 28km at the equator). The way accuracy is measured is through picking targets (say temperature at 2 meters, at x,y lat & l…

To add to this, there are other ML models with higher resolution. For example, Google's MetNet-3 uses satellite radar images and ground measurements, and its resolution is 1km x 1km. And we are currently working on training a "nano" version of this!

Metnet-3: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38122631

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