$10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
garymarcus.substack.com
$10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
1–10 of 14 posts
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#2Generously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#3I too would like to get paid for having to read whatever stuff the Twitter guy posts online that somehow ends up being displayed as news
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#4The bar is this:
"...whatever smart intellectual labor any human working on their own, even the best human in a given domain, can do will be beaten by Al by end of 2025. That is what I am challenging."
I don't see ML models doing superhuman science in a year and half so I would take that bet. They can't even write better prose than the best humans, and language models are their strong suit.
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#5Generously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
To be more cynical.
He tends to do it whenever there is bad news in other parts of his business.
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#6Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#7Generously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
> When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
That's an overly charitable interpretation of what he's doing.
The pattern that I've observed is: 1) he's a narcissist who always wants to be in the news and/or 2) he's trying to distract from something.
He can't stand it when the press moves on from him. His MO is to wait for a week or two and then throw out something outlandish to suck up the media oxygen.
He and Trump are very similar people.
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#8To be fair, I've never met a human as knowledgeable as ChatGPT before but I've simultaneously never met a human as dumb as ChatGPT before.
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#9Yeah but what about by 2035? What's the saying? Something like "people overestimate how much will change in 5 years but underestimate how much will change in 10"
Re: $10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
#10Generously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
> When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it. That's an overly charitable interpretation of what he's doing. The pattern that I've observed is: 1) he's a narcissist who always wants to be in the news and/or 2) he's trying to distract from something. He can't stand it when the press moves on from him. His MO is to wait for a week or two and then throw out something outlandish to suck up the media…
Having read the biography, he's a man who likes and is attracted to drama, regardless how much it burns him.