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Creating a fake Indian cricket league

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Re: Creating a fake Indian cricket league

#5

Post by pricecomstock »

zimpenfish wrote: post #4

Interesting story but I was hoping it was more about procedurally generating fake cricket scores because that strikes me as difficult if you want "realistic" results.

I've done something like this and it's not too bad with the Poisson distribution.

You can pick a time interval and the average amount of times an event (scoring a point, for example) that occur in that interval and get a realistic random simulation.

The time period could be a whole game or every 30 seconds during a game.

Unless there's something about cricket I don't know that makes it a bad match for this

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

Re: Creating a fake Indian cricket league

#6

Post by 0x007c00 »

zimpenfish wrote: post #4

Interesting story but I was hoping it was more about procedurally generating fake cricket scores because that strikes me as difficult if you want "realistic" results.

I did something like this a few years ago, the results were fairly "realistic" since it was based on ball-by-ball data from real life matches - https://nbn.sh/p/beamer/

Was never quite satisfied with it since the simulation was quite primitive and would never work on the holy grail of cricket (test matches). But even then users on r/cricket found it amusing enough.

I had started working on another version using neural networks, but life got in the way and I never made a lot of progress with it :/

Re: Creating a fake Indian cricket league

#9

Post by Someone »

pricecomstock wrote: post #5
zimpenfish wrote: post #4

Interesting story but I was hoping it was more about procedurally generating fake cricket scores because that strikes me as difficult if you want "realistic" results.

I've done something like this and it's not too bad with the Poisson distribution. You can pick a time interval and the average amount of times an event (scoring a point, for example) that occur in that interval and get a realistic random simulation. The time period could be a whole game or every 30 seconds during a game. Unless there's something about cricket I don't know that makes it a bad match for this https://en…

You don’t give details, so I don’t know whether your simulations does, but both the pitcher and the batter will, if they’re any good, adjust the amount of risk they’re taking depending on the score.

For example, if the pitching party is 8 runs ahead with one ball to play, the bowler’s primary goal should be to not throw an extra (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extra_(cricket)). Getting hit with a four or six wouldn’t be ideal, but still would win them the match.

If, on the other hand, they’re a single run ahead with a hundred balls to play while the batters have a single wicket in hand, trying to minimize runs conceded per over doesn’t make sense; the bowler should instead aim to get that last wicket even if that means the risk of losing the match in a single ball is extremely high.

For the batter, similar arguments apply. If there’s no need to score fast, good batters will take less risk. Also, there’s the relationship with your partner. You want the better player to get at bat and stay there. That may mean running a single in cases where you could easily run two.

Because of that, I think a good simulation would have a spectrum of distributions for both the bowler and the batter and a function that picks one of them depending on circumstances (including, of course, the weather forecast).

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