You can't trust the AI hype
palladiummag.com
You can't trust the AI hype
1–9 of 9 posts
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#2This is a useful message to the investor audience, but I think the focus on 'hype' is missing the utility of Generative AI and only hovering near the confusion that people express regarding the technology. AI currently is decidedly an extension or tool, it does not have agency. I think this is the main confusion at play. AI cannot displace single workers directly, but it can now be used to great effect to create efficiencies which could in turn displace a percentage of a class of service workers. I think the distinction is important, particularly to those who are concerned that AI may obsolete their jobs.
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#3I have a developing idea that AI can be thought of as "banking" (or sometimes laundering) human labelling. Neural networks don't work at all on things they haven't seen before (out-of-distribution) but can nicely interpolate within what they have seen. Concretely, when chatGPT gives a seemingly clever answer, a data labeller overseas somewhere has already manually given a similar answer to a similar question (similar in the eyes of the model). Depending on the expected distribution of your data, this can work really great for automation. With long tailed data, it either becomes a kind of whack-a-mole or (as with modern LLMs) you just go really big. I haven't seen anything suggesting we're actually able to escape the long tail though, and that in the margins AI NNs will always fail and the only way to improve them is to launder more manpower.
There was an old (2020) a16z article that's still relevant "taming the tail": https://a16z.com/2020/08/12/taming-the-tail-adventures-in-im...
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#4This is a useful message to the investor audience, but I think the focus on 'hype' is missing the utility of Generative AI and only hovering near the confusion that people express regarding the technology. AI currently is decidedly an extension or tool, it does not have agency. I think this is the main confusion at play. AI cannot displace single workers directly, but it can now be used to great effect to create effi…
> I think the distinction is important, particularly to those who are concerned that AI may obsolete their jobs.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I am one of those concerned about AI putting lots of people out of work, but I don't see how that distinction affects (or should affect) my concerns.
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#5I have a developing idea that AI can be thought of as "banking" (or sometimes laundering) human labelling. Neural networks don't work at all on things they haven't seen before (out-of-distribution) but can nicely interpolate within what they have seen. Concretely, when chatGPT gives a seemingly clever answer, a data labeller overseas somewhere has already manually given a similar answer to a similar question (similar…
The thing I find most interesting about LLMs is the emergent skills that happen almost instantly(based on model size) that weren't inherently trained for.
Picking movie names from emojis seems like something other than interpolation.
https://www.assemblyai.com/blog/emergent-abilities-of-large-....
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#6I have a developing idea that AI can be thought of as "banking" (or sometimes laundering) human labelling. Neural networks don't work at all on things they haven't seen before (out-of-distribution) but can nicely interpolate within what they have seen. Concretely, when chatGPT gives a seemingly clever answer, a data labeller overseas somewhere has already manually given a similar answer to a similar question (similar…
The thing I find most interesting about LLMs is the emergent skills that happen almost instantly(based on model size) that weren't inherently trained for. Picking movie names from emojis seems like something other than interpolation. https://www.assemblyai.com/blog/emergent-abilities-of-large-... .
Not really IMO. At scale the model learns that the rainbow emoji is literally a synonym for “rainbow”. Computers are great at memorizing giant lists of facts such as this. It feels way more amazing for an LLM to guess the Carebear Movie from the rainbow emoji and bear emoji but it’s literally the same as asking the LLM to guess a movie that involves rainbows and bears with words.
It’s just an embedding space buried within the bowls of the LLM.
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#7I have a developing idea that AI can be thought of as "banking" (or sometimes laundering) human labelling. Neural networks don't work at all on things they haven't seen before (out-of-distribution) but can nicely interpolate within what they have seen. Concretely, when chatGPT gives a seemingly clever answer, a data labeller overseas somewhere has already manually given a similar answer to a similar question (similar…
It’s inherent to their architecture. Feedforward deep neural networks are effectively massive piecewise linear functions. Unless I’m missing something, it’s literally impossible for any NN, no matter how large or how much data they’re trained on to give accurate out-of-training-data-bounds predictions for even a ridiculously simple function like x^2.
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#8This is a useful message to the investor audience, but I think the focus on 'hype' is missing the utility of Generative AI and only hovering near the confusion that people express regarding the technology. AI currently is decidedly an extension or tool, it does not have agency. I think this is the main confusion at play. AI cannot displace single workers directly, but it can now be used to great effect to create effi…
> I think the distinction is important, particularly to those who are concerned that AI may obsolete their jobs. I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I am one of those concerned about AI putting lots of people out of work, but I don't see how that distinction affects (or should affect) my concerns.
It indicates that workers who excel at adapting to AI integrations which directly impact their work may have an opportunity to thrive. If AI could replace you wholesale, then it wouldn't matter how well you interoperated with it.
Re: You can't trust the AI hype
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think the distinction is important, particularly to those who are concerned that AI may obsolete their jobs. I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I am one of those concerned about AI putting lots of people out of work, but I don't see how that distinction affects (or should affect) my concerns.
It indicates that workers who excel at adapting to AI integrations which directly impact their work may have an opportunity to thrive. If AI could replace you wholesale, then it wouldn't matter how well you interoperated with it.
But AI means that fewer of those workers will be needed. I'm not concerned about my own personal employment, I'm concerned about the loss of a significant chunk of jobs.