Ask HN: The collapse of web programming jobs

What do you think about Jon Blow's comment* on the (eventual) collapse of web programming roles? Is it happening right now in the US? The reason why I ask this is because I have seen many developers here express difficulty in finding jobs. Could we be in an early stage of a market contraction related to web development roles?

[*] https://youtu.be/yodWEPgn8NA

It’s a game developer saying his kind of skills will be in demand while “those other” skills won’t be. I have no idea what will happen, but color me skeptical on this take. If for no other reason there’s not a lot of detail on why.

Specifically why does web programming get easier but game programming does not? Why wouldn’t all programming get gradually easier.

In any case I do think you do yourself a disservice if you can’t pivot to a different part of software. When I graduated college 20 years ago the trend was monolithic Java or C++ apps. There was no Stackoverflow. There was barely a functioning web search engine. AI was rule based. Deep learning wasn’t readily used, nor was machine learning. JavaScript was barely used.

If you’re not constantly thinking about your skills investment and direction, you could be left behind.

Neh... web programming is not going anywhere. Sure, the current environment is exposing all of the companies that never really had a business model other than raising more and more money. But there's still plenty of space for software to grow within existing profitable companies and new companies that can be more capital efficient.

He claims you can strip out some of the inefficiency which is related to interoperating software... that's not going anywhere. There will alwyas be walled gardens or code that breaks. Maybe that'll even increase. And even though what AI can already do is incredible, I think it'll take a long time before it can build and maintain large scale projects. In the meantime, it'll certainly make developers more efficient, but so have countless other tools.

That said, I think that remote workers are going to have a reckoning. If i'm hiring for people to be in the office, then i have a much smaller pool, replacing people is tougher, etc. But once I'm opening the doors to remote work, why not do so in a country with a much lower cost of living? I see people on HN constantly talking about how to succeed remotely, you need to be able to work in an async environment, etc. Well guess who loves the idea of an async environment? Upper managers who see ballooning payrolls and realize that an async/remote workplace doesn't need to consist of people in high cost countries.

I agree with Jon Blow, and Techlead has also interesting take on software development as a whole...

multiple forces at effect. investment drying up, the strong assumption AI will replace coders in couple of years, nobody giving a damn about apps because everything interesting is on tiktok / instagram and other social platforms.

the current big thing is content and clout and even that will be replaced by AI in no time. nobody knows what comes after that, star trek or terminator, take your guess...

That’s a complex question. You are asking about general equilibrium effects: where the economy will be once companies and workers across industries all adjust to large-scale automation.

Folks who work in roles that are automated away could find employment in other, presumably less well-paid, roles. Or they could end up being the technicians and engineers who manage the automated processes.

The companies can remain profitable even if the purchasing power of workers declines. Their cost could fall due to automation, and their price mark-ups could increase if they manage to drive competitors out of business. So those who own the companies that survive could do well in all this.