Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
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Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#24 sigma is once every 43 years (twice in a lifetime)
4.5 sigma is once every 403 years (once in the modern era)
5 sigma is once every 4776 years (once in recorded history)
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#3Totally insane. The water by me is 82'. The highest it has ever been before this year was 78ish.
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#4Is the frog boiling yet? Can we start doing something about all this now please?
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#5What's really astonishing about this is that to increase sea surface temperature by 1.5 degrees C, you need to heat the whole ocean mixed layer, which in summer is around 50 meters deep. E = c_p * rho * h * dT ~ (4e3 J / kg K) * (10e3 kg / m^3) * (50 m) * (1.5 K) = 3e8 J / m^2. So over the whole North Atlantic, this is about a (4e14 m^2) * (3e8 J / m^2) = 1.2e23 Joules of energy that have been added to the North Atlantic. That's about the same amount of energy that the whole Earth absorbs from the sun in a month.
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#64 sigma is once every 43 years (twice in a lifetime) 4.5 sigma is once every 403 years (once in the modern era) 5 sigma is once every 4776 years (once in recorded history)
How do you derive these?
Edit: probability for daily event, see here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_r...
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#7Do we have sea temperature data from before 1982? Like, thousands of years'?
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#8[deleted]
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#94 sigma is once every 43 years (twice in a lifetime) 4.5 sigma is once every 403 years (once in the modern era) 5 sigma is once every 4776 years (once in recorded history)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-24/antarctic-sea-ice-lev...
"The consensus statement at the moment would be that this is largely anthropogenic forces that have caused the ocean to warm, for the atmosphere to be highly disturbed and to affect the sea ice," Dr Heil said. ...
Either way, she fears a further change in the balance could trigger a tipping point from where it's difficult to reverse the trajectory. ...
"I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won't affect them. I'm pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience."
Re: Today's North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (4.8 Sigma)
#10Is the frog boiling yet? Can we start doing something about all this now please?
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