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A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

cia.gov

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Re: A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

#3

Post by pinkcan »

I understand this document is from 2009, not secret, and probably contains information known elsewhere.

Still, what is the intent of the CIA in publishing this on the open web? I assume they would be able to distribute this to US nationals even in other orgs through internal networks.

Re: A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

#4

Post by paganel »

> 2003 Iraq’s WMD Programs

> Saddam failed to cooperate with UN inspectors because he was continuing to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Apparently this "analysis" was written in 2009, a good 6 years after the start of the Second Iraq War, and still the CIA followed the political manoeuvre of not challenging their leaders' lies about Iraq's WMD.

This is one of the most vulnerable points of any "intelligence" agency, i.e. they're at the whims of those holding actual power in any given State.

Re: A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

#5

Post by _yo2u »

I think fundamentally, if you have incomplete information and have to make some actions or judgements, either you are:

1. doing things to reason about or uncover more useful datapoints to increase certainty

2. you are accepting the probability that you are right/wrong at face value

The direction in which you decide to uncover datapoints is the "bias" that they are talking about. This process if further influenced by institutionalized assumptions or priors you are working with.

I really don't like lists like "Strategic Assumptions That Were Not Challenged" because they are factually true but also reek of survivorship bias.

Re: A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

#8

Post by logicallee »

pinkcan wrote: post #3

I understand this document is from 2009, not secret, and probably contains information known elsewhere. Still, what is the intent of the CIA in publishing this on the open web? I assume they would be able to distribute this to US nationals even in other orgs through internal networks.

>Still, what is the intent of the CIA in publishing this on the open web?

I think this is great for branding. All you ever hear is negative stuff. They should publish more in their own name and on their own site.

Re: A Tradecraft Primer (2009)

#10

Post by boppo1 »

pinkcan wrote: post #3

I understand this document is from 2009, not secret, and probably contains information known elsewhere. Still, what is the intent of the CIA in publishing this on the open web? I assume they would be able to distribute this to US nationals even in other orgs through internal networks.

Maybe it’s bad advice that ne’er-do-wells will try to employ, leaving them susceptible to the CIA.
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